TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094544
Played Sep 8Finished
Daniil Habrelyan
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1189119111191113
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniil Habrelyan above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 103 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 64.5%
103 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Habrelyan 1–0 Oleh Karpenko Oleh Karpenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Habrelyan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Habrelyan 1561 vs Karpenko 1609
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Habrelyan 40% vs Karpenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Habrelyan 50% vs Karpenko 30%
Habrelyan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Habrelyan -1 · Karpenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHabrelyan 1.44 / Karpenko 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Habrelyan)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13094544
Habrelyan1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Karpenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHabrelyan1wins
AwayKarpenko0wins
Habrelyan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHabrelyanKarpenkoH − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.027.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHabrelyanKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 407 vs 355 / 68146.9%52.1%191 / 407 vs 355 / 681Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanHabrelyan 1.44/Karpenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 2 · 10:40D. Habrelyan—1211113O. Karpenko—10980
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113
O. Karpenko10
LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113
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