TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100528
Played Sep 9Finished
Daniil Habrelyan
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118911115––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:48 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniil Habrelyan above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 57.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Habrelyan 21–38 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Daniil Habrelyan has won 21 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:48What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-38 in 59
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
gap of 17 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Habrelyan 1582 vs Tiutiunnyk 1584
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Habrelyan 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 80%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Habrelyan 50% vs Tiutiunnyk 70%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Habrelyan +1 · Tiutiunnyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHabrelyan 2.10 / Tiutiunnyk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13100528
Habrelyan2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Tiutiunnyk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 62 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHabrelyan4wins
AwayTiutiunnyk6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHabrelyan42.9%3 of 7
AwayTiutiunnyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Habrelyan7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S2Habrelyan4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S3Habrelyan5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S4Habrelyan4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S5Habrelyan2Tiutiunnyk4n = 6Tiutiunnyk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHabrelyanTiutiunnykH − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.444.1−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHabrelyanTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 410 vs 180 / 37947.1%47.5%193 / 410 vs 180 / 379Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykHabrelyan 2.10/Tiutiunnyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan—11119113M. Tiutiunnyk—681151
LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan—11691192M. Tiutiunnyk—211117113
LSep 3 · 17:10D. Habrelyan—12781162M. Tiutiunnyk—1011115113
WSep 2 · 16:10D. Habrelyan—812115113M. Tiutiunnyk—111061182
WJul 1 · 14:10D. Habrelyan—118118183M. Tiutiunnyk—711811162
LJun 18 · 17:10D. Habrelyan—11116872M. Tiutiunnyk—691111113
LJun 13 · 14:10D. Habrelyan—10111121M. Tiutiunnyk—12139113
LMar 29 · 10:30D. Habrelyan—1271141M. Tiutiunnyk—14118113
LMar 28 · 12:40D. Habrelyan—111131182M. Tiutiunnyk—591113113
WFeb 15 · 07:30D. Habrelyan—111111113M. Tiutiunnyk—813691
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161LSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113WSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123
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