TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094484
Played Sep 8Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111412711911––
Oleh Karpenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:17 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 56.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 1–1 Oleh Karpenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1609 vs Karpenko 1604
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 80% vs Karpenko 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 70% vs Karpenko 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk +4 · Karpenko -1
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.50 / Karpenko 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13094484
Tiutiunnyk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 60 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Karpenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 85 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back20% 12 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk1wins
AwayKarpenko1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykKarpenkoT − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match53.556.0−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 377 vs 356 / 68347.8%52.1%180 / 377 vs 356 / 683Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.50/Karpenko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 2 · 12:10M. Tiutiunnyk—5141311113O. Karpenko—111611692
LSep 1 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk—1413111142O. Karpenko—1215138113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113
O. Karpenko10
LSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461WSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.401711143O. Karpenko2.75154120WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113
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