TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100632
Played Sep 9Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121210811115911
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 63.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 23–12 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 12 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-12 in 35
Merzlikin
Wrong
gap of 11 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1508 vs Tiutiunnyk 1592
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Tiutiunnyk 70%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -2 · Tiutiunnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Merzlikin) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.44 / Tiutiunnyk 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Merzlikin)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100632
Merzlikin1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 19 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it65% 11 of 17
Tiutiunnyk2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin9wins
AwayTiutiunnyk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin100%6 of 6
AwayTiutiunnyk25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S2Merzlikin8Tiutiunnyk2n = 10Merzlikin took 8 of 10
S3Merzlikin8Tiutiunnyk2n = 10Merzlikin took 8 of 10
S4Merzlikin2Tiutiunnyk2n = 4split evenly
S5Merzlikin3Tiutiunnyk0n = 3Merzlikin took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.330.8+7.5per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 602 vs 181 / 38044.9%47.6%270 / 602 vs 181 / 380Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.44/Tiutiunnyk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 13:10V. Merzlikin—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—8540
LJun 20 · 13:10V. Merzlikin—8760M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113
WMar 29 · 09:30V. Merzlikin—1311123M. Tiutiunnyk—114100
WMar 28 · 14:40V. Merzlikin—9131110113M. Tiutiunnyk—111141262
WMar 11 · 11:40V. Merzlikin—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—5960
WFeb 19 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—911811113M. Tiutiunnyk—11911792
WFeb 18 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—12711113M. Tiutiunnyk—1011991
WDec 31 · 06:05V. Merzlikin—911117113M. Tiutiunnyk—11381162
WDec 17 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—9590
WDec 13 · 09:20V. Merzlikin—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—6780
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271LAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113LAug 29 · 15:10V. Merzlikin2.634670O. Varlamov1.44111193LAug 29 · 13:40V. Merzlikin2.204980O. Blashkun1.611111113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161LSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151LSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113WSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113
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