TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100637
Played Sep 9Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117113––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 51 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 62.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 5–3 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1618 vs Habrelyan 1582
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 60% vs Habrelyan 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Habrelyan 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Habrelyan +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.53 / Habrelyan 2.38
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bondarenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100637
Bondarenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 16 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Habrelyan2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back25% 11 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBondarenko5wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderBondarenko leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%3 of 3
AwayHabrelyan60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Habrelyan5n = 8Habrelyan took 5 of 8
S2Bondarenko7Habrelyan1n = 8Bondarenko took 7 of 8
S3Bondarenko5Habrelyan3n = 8Bondarenko took 5 of 8
S4Bondarenko3Habrelyan4n = 7Habrelyan took 4 of 7
S5Bondarenko2Habrelyan2n = 4split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanB − HBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match41.538.4+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 95 vs 193 / 41052.6%47.1%50 / 95 vs 193 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.53/Habrelyan 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko—812119113D. Habrelyan—111091152
LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko—511101162D. Habrelyan—116126113
LAug 16 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko—91111552D. Habrelyan—115811113
WJun 28 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—11117113D. Habrelyan—551181
LFeb 15 · 10:30Y. Bondarenko—1111851D. Habrelyan—13811113
WFeb 1 · 11:30Y. Bondarenko—1111113D. Habrelyan—5470
WAug 17 · 10:10Y. Bondarenko—71113123D. Habrelyan—11711101
WAug 17 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko—119114113D. Habrelyan—61171172
Y. Bondarenko10
LSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113
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