TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116742
Played Sep 12Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111991111987
Volodymir Maksuta
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Volodymir Maksuta below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-7
Point 90 set 5, 8-7 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 4–1 Volodymir Maksuta Volodymir Maksuta has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maksuta
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Merzlikin
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1489 vs Maksuta 1606
Maksuta
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Maksuta 40%
Maksuta
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 20% vs Maksuta 50%
Maksuta
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -3 · Maksuta -1
Merzlikin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksuta form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.83 / Maksuta 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Merzlikin)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116742
Merzlikin1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Maksuta1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMerzlikin4wins
AwayMaksuta1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin100%3 of 3
AwayMaksutan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin3Maksuta2n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S2Merzlikin4Maksuta1n = 5Merzlikin took 4 of 5
S3Merzlikin2Maksuta3n = 5Maksuta took 3 of 5
S4Merzlikin1Maksuta2n = 3Maksuta took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMerzlikinMaksutaMerzlikin − MaksutaBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.835.2+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinMaksutaBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 607 vs 166 / 29044.7%57.2%271 / 607 vs 166 / 290Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.83/Maksuta 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merzlikin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 13 · 13:40V. Merzlikin331111113V. Maksuta196580
LAug 5 · 11:10V. Merzlikin123540V. Maksuta331111113
WMar 11 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50131167133V. Maksuta521181111112
WFeb 26 · 15:40V. Merzlikin38111123113V. Maksuta3862111182
WNov 26 · 16:10V. Merzlikin4691111153V. Maksuta341137131
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 12 · 15:40V. Merzlikin3.409540A. Droshchynskyi1.30111153LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.53116971M. Tiutiunnyk2.3891111113LSep 12 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.8010580Y. Holoborodko1.911211113LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841
V. Maksuta10
LSep 12 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.501011513113V. Maksuta1.50128111182LSep 12 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi2.751111113V. Maksuta1.404490WSep 12 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.101011631V. Maksuta1.6712811113LSep 10 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.838970O. Kuzyshyn1.831111113LSep 10 · 15:10V. Maksuta1.577670A. Zozulia2.251111113WSep 10 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.3311116113M. Tiutiunnyk3.25441191LSep 10 · 12:10V. Maksuta1.4491111562Y. Holoborodko2.63116911113WSep 10 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83119159113O. Zhyrnov1.83811131192LSep 7 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko1.80128712113V. Maksuta1.911011111082WSep 7 · 17:00V. Maksuta1.36712118113M. Mrykh3.00111091192
Upcoming Matches
V. Merzlikin
Nothing scheduled
V. Maksuta
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