TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117028
Played Sep 12Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511811––––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 10–13 Yevhenii Holoborodko Valerii Merzlikin has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-13 in 23
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1509 vs Holoborodko 1580
Holoborodko
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 40% vs Holoborodko 60%
Holoborodko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Holoborodko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holoborodko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.80 / Holoborodko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holoborodko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13117028
Merzlikin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Holoborodko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 72 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back26% 33 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin5wins
AwayHoloborodko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin62.5%5 of 8
AwayHoloborodkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin8Holoborodko2n = 10Merzlikin took 8 of 10
S2Merzlikin5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S3Merzlikin4Holoborodko6n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S4Merzlikin4Holoborodko3n = 7Merzlikin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.2+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 605 vs 323 / 62044.8%52.1%271 / 605 vs 323 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoMerzlikin 1.80/Holoborodko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin—12114872Y. Holoborodko—1081111113
WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin—12816113Y. Holoborodko—10111471
LAug 27 · 16:10V. Merzlikin—8117101Y. Holoborodko—11911123
WAug 22 · 17:40V. Merzlikin—1315113Y. Holoborodko—111380
LAug 19 · 11:10V. Merzlikin—13671162Y. Holoborodko—1111119113
WAug 15 · 13:40V. Merzlikin—11511113Y. Holoborodko—711771
LAug 12 · 12:40V. Merzlikin—87110Y. Holoborodko—1111133
WAug 8 · 14:10V. Merzlikin—1111113Y. Holoborodko—7590
LJun 20 · 15:40V. Merzlikin—1141051Y. Holoborodko—31112113
WApr 3 · 12:20V. Merzlikin—11117113Y. Holoborodko—441171
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113WAug 30 · 05:30V. Merzlikin1.91111710113R. Sopivnyk1.806151271
Y. Holoborodko10
LSep 10 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.911111113Y. Holoborodko1.809720LSep 10 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.6364110O. Zhyrnov1.441111133WSep 10 · 14:10A. Zozulia1.6181161192Y. Holoborodko2.20117113113WSep 10 · 12:10V. Maksuta1.4491111562Y. Holoborodko2.63116911113WSep 10 · 11:10O. Kuzyshyn1.3687110Y. Holoborodko3.001111133LSep 9 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.91131110113Y. Holoborodko1.801121241WSep 9 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.00139711113O. Nadporozhskyi1.73111111772LSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120WSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471
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