TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100490
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111121012114––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 13–20 Yevhenii Holoborodko Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 13 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-20 in 33
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1588 vs Holoborodko 1575
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 40% vs Holoborodko 80%
Holoborodko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 60% vs Holoborodko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk -1 · Holoborodko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tiutiunnyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.91 / Holoborodko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100490
Tiutiunnyk1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back24% 12 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Holoborodko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 122 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it69% 77 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk6wins
AwayHoloborodko4wins
7 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnyk50%4 of 8
AwayHoloborodkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk8Holoborodko2n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 8 of 10
S2Tiutiunnyk2Holoborodko8n = 10Holoborodko took 8 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk6Holoborodko4n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S4Tiutiunnyk5Holoborodko5n = 10split evenly
S5Tiutiunnyk4Holoborodko3n = 7Tiutiunnyk took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykHoloborodkoT − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match47.043.5+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 382 vs 320 / 61447.6%52.1%182 / 382 vs 320 / 614Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.91/Holoborodko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk—116115113Y. Holoborodko—91191172
WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—671111113Y. Holoborodko—11116562
WSep 2 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk—91111123Y. Holoborodko—1169101
LSep 1 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1311111092Y. Holoborodko—1113712113
WAug 6 · 15:40M. Tiutiunnyk—1111511113Y. Holoborodko—61311662
LAug 2 · 10:35M. Tiutiunnyk—11891652Y. Holoborodko—8111114113
LAug 1 · 11:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1111129102Y. Holoborodko—441411123
WJul 16 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk—11711113Y. Holoborodko—711861
WJul 2 · 14:40M. Tiutiunnyk—119137113Y. Holoborodko—311111182
LJun 25 · 15:40M. Tiutiunnyk—11101191Y. Holoborodko—51213113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171WSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113WSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161LSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151LSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113WSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 9 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.00139711113O. Nadporozhskyi1.73111111772LSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120WSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113WSep 9 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.008116111Y. Holoborodko1.7311911133WSep 8 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko1.3611711113O. Karpenko3.00911461LSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 06:00Y. Volkov2.0012101281Y. Holoborodko1.73141210113LSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113
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