TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116779
Played Sep 12Finished
Valerii Merzlikin
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611911711––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 56.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 23–13 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 13 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-13 in 36
Merzlikin
Wrong
gap of 10 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1498 vs Tiutiunnyk 1590
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 30% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -2 · Tiutiunnyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Merzlikin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merzlikin form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.53 / Tiutiunnyk 2.38
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Merzlikin)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13116779
Merzlikin1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it63% 12 of 19
Tiutiunnyk2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 41 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin8wins
AwayTiutiunnyk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin100%5 of 5
AwayTiutiunnyk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Merzlikin8Tiutiunnyk2n = 10Merzlikin took 8 of 10
S3Merzlikin7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S4Merzlikin3Tiutiunnyk2n = 5Merzlikin took 3 of 5
S5Merzlikin3Tiutiunnyk1n = 4Merzlikin took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.033.6+6.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 606 vs 186 / 38944.7%47.8%271 / 606 vs 186 / 389Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.53/Tiutiunnyk 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50101281192M. Tiutiunnyk491210115113
WAug 5 · 13:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk178540
LJun 20 · 13:10V. Merzlikin218760M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
WMar 29 · 09:30V. Merzlikin361311123M. Tiutiunnyk25114100
WMar 28 · 14:40V. Merzlikin549131110113M. Tiutiunnyk44111141262
WMar 11 · 11:40V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk205960
WFeb 19 · 14:10V. Merzlikin50911811113M. Tiutiunnyk4711911792
WFeb 18 · 14:10V. Merzlikin4112711113M. Tiutiunnyk391011991
WDec 31 · 06:05V. Merzlikin49911117113M. Tiutiunnyk3911381162
WDec 17 · 16:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk239590
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 12 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.8010580Y. Holoborodko1.911211113LSep 9 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.00101181162Y. Bondarenko1.73123117113WSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113LSep 9 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.7312114872Y. Holoborodko2.001081111113LSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WAug 30 · 11:00V. Merzlikin1.8312816113Y. Holoborodko1.8310111471LAug 30 · 09:00O. Blashkun1.50121111113V. Merzlikin2.501013841LAug 30 · 08:00V. Merzlikin2.5013870O. Zhyrnov1.501511113WAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LSep 12 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk3.258280A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.911111113Y. Holoborodko1.809720WSep 10 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn1.73811813122M. Tiutiunnyk2.001191111143LSep 10 · 13:40V. Maksuta1.3311116113M. Tiutiunnyk3.25441191LSep 10 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.381112481O. Zhyrnov1.5351411113WSep 10 · 11:40A. Zozulia1.8379130M. Tiutiunnyk1.831111153WSep 9 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.91131110113Y. Holoborodko1.801121241LSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171WSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113WSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161
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