TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105637
Played Sep 10Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1151214411811––
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:36 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 62.4%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 25–24 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 24 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:36What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-24 in 49
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1612 vs Zhyrnov 1718
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 80% vs Zhyrnov 20%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 70% vs Zhyrnov 50%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk +2 · Zhyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 2.38 / Zhyrnov 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105637
Tiutiunnyk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 38 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back23% 12 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Zhyrnov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 120 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it84% 91 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk2wins
AwayZhyrnov8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZhyrnov100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk2Zhyrnov8n = 10Zhyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Tiutiunnyk4Zhyrnov6n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk4Zhyrnov6n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Tiutiunnyk1Zhyrnov3n = 4Zhyrnov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykZhyrnovT − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match29.436.0−6.6per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 384 vs 381 / 76747.9%49.7%184 / 384 vs 381 / 767Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovTiutiunnyk 2.38/Zhyrnov 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 15:10M. Tiutiunnyk—751261O. Zhyrnov—111110113
LSep 2 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—3870O. Zhyrnov—1111113
LAug 1 · 14:40M. Tiutiunnyk—7580O. Zhyrnov—1111113
LJul 22 · 16:40M. Tiutiunnyk—10560O. Zhyrnov—1211113
LJul 19 · 07:30M. Tiutiunnyk—911871O. Zhyrnov—11911113
LJul 16 · 14:40M. Tiutiunnyk—61181192O. Zhyrnov—119115113
LJul 2 · 16:40M. Tiutiunnyk—17390O. Zhyrnov—1911113
WJun 25 · 16:40M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113O. Zhyrnov—9790
WJun 20 · 15:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1211113O. Zhyrnov—10550
LJun 13 · 12:10M. Tiutiunnyk—751161O. Zhyrnov—11119113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 10 · 11:40A. Zozulia1.8379130M. Tiutiunnyk1.831111153WSep 9 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.91131110113Y. Holoborodko1.801121241LSep 9 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko1.8011137113M. Tiutiunnyk1.917111171WSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin1.44101281192M. Tiutiunnyk2.631210115113WSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161LSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151LSep 8 · 11:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.50814791O. Karpenko2.50111211113WSep 8 · 09:00Y. Volkov2.2511113692M. Tiutiunnyk1.57271111113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Tiutiunnyk1.91116115113Y. Holoborodko1.8091191172WSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113
O. Zhyrnov10
LSep 10 · 10:40V. Maksuta1.83119159113O. Zhyrnov1.83811131192WSep 8 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov3.7515127113O. Strutinskiy1.2513101191LSep 8 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko1.73711116113O. Zhyrnov2.0011991192LSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123WSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh1.44116591O. Zhyrnov2.6341111113WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143
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