TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094678
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
15131210711119––
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 74.4% is still 74.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
74.4%
74.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 74.4%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 7–33 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 7 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-33 in 40
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 26 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1719 vs Strutinskiy 1722
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 40% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Strutinskiy 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -3 · Strutinskiy +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Strutinskiy) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 3.75 / Strutinskiy 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13094678
Zhyrnov3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Strutinskiy1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 154 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it87% 78 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it74% 110 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov0wins
AwayStrutinskiy10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrutinskiy100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov2Strutinskiy8n = 10Strutinskiy took 8 of 10
S2Zhyrnov2Strutinskiy8n = 10Strutinskiy took 8 of 10
S3Zhyrnov3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov0Strutinskiy5n = 5Strutinskiy took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovStrutinskiyZ − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match28.839.3−10.5per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 766 vs 404 / 79049.7%51.1%381 / 766 vs 404 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyZhyrnov 3.75/Strutinskiy 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
76.6%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 19 · 09:20O. Zhyrnov—6101191O. Strutinskiy—11124113
LMay 12 · 06:20O. Zhyrnov—5360O. Strutinskiy—1111113
LApr 3 · 12:50O. Zhyrnov—118116102O. Strutinskiy—911711123
LMar 31 · 12:20O. Zhyrnov—671591O. Strutinskiy—111113113
LMar 30 · 18:20O. Zhyrnov—8660O. Strutinskiy—1111113
LMar 24 · 13:50O. Zhyrnov—5350O. Strutinskiy—1111113
LMar 23 · 21:20O. Zhyrnov—44110O. Strutinskiy—1111133
LMar 20 · 09:50O. Zhyrnov—12119982O. Strutinskiy—1091111113
LMar 19 · 21:50O. Zhyrnov—611781O. Strutinskiy—11711113
LMar 17 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov—8860O. Strutinskiy—1111113
O. Zhyrnov10
LSep 8 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko1.73711116113O. Zhyrnov2.0011991192LSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650LSep 8 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov2.20111010101I. Nitchenko1.6171212123WSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh1.44116591O. Zhyrnov2.6341111113WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 8 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy1.8311711113I. Nitchenko1.83711591WSep 8 · 09:20M. Mrykh1.805670O. Strutinskiy1.911111113WSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113LSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772LSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310430LSep 7 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.758750V. Savoliuk1.401111113LSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 13:30E. Hrytsenko2.63111080O. Strutinskiy1.441312113WSep 7 · 12:30V. Maksuta2.00117761O. Strutinskiy1.7361111113WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113
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