TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094479
Played Sep 8Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113711115119711
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 96 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 53–63 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Andrii Derevianko has won 53 of their 116 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-63 in 116
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 10 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1729 vs Strutinskiy 1700
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 80% vs Strutinskiy 20%
Derevianko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 80% vs Strutinskiy 40%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Strutinskiy -4
Strutinskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.00 / Strutinskiy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13094479
Derevianko2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 132 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back24% 45 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 100
Strutinskiy1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 154 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it87% 78 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it74% 110 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayStrutinskiy6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko100%3 of 3
AwayStrutinskiy85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko3Strutinskiy7n = 10Strutinskiy took 7 of 10
S2Derevianko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko7Strutinskiy3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Derevianko3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
S5Derevianko1Strutinskiy3n = 4Strutinskiy took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.1−0.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 977 vs 402 / 78847.6%51%465 / 977 vs 402 / 788Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyDerevianko 2.00/Strutinskiy 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko—117111172O. Strutinskiy—131159113
WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko—1211113O. Strutinskiy—10890
WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—4620
LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko—811591O. Strutinskiy—11611113
LSep 1 · 07:50A. Derevianko—71111372O. Strutinskiy—115211113
LAug 31 · 13:00A. Derevianko—911101132O. Strutinskiy—116127113
WAug 28 · 09:50A. Derevianko—27161443O. Strutinskiy—1111141232
LAug 27 · 12:00A. Derevianko—9430O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 25 · 12:20A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—8860
LAug 24 · 18:30A. Derevianko—51011101O. Strutinskiy—11126123
A. Derevianko10
WSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113LSep 7 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.67711116102M. Mrykh2.10118511123WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492
O. Strutinskiy10
LSep 8 · 06:20E. Hrytsenko2.63611311113O. Strutinskiy1.4411411772LSep 7 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310430LSep 7 · 17:30O. Strutinskiy2.758750V. Savoliuk1.401111113LSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 13:30E. Hrytsenko2.63111080O. Strutinskiy1.441312113WSep 7 · 12:30V. Maksuta2.00117761O. Strutinskiy1.7361111113WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113
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