TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088685
Played Sep 7Finished
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511101211613111412
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEvhenii Hrytsenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 105 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 56.2%
105 points played in total.
H2H Evhenii Hrytsenko 16–22 Andrii Derevianko Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevianko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-22 in 38
Derevianko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrytsenko 1675 vs Derevianko 1737
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrytsenko 40% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrytsenko 40% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrytsenko +1 · Derevianko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrytsenko 2.10 / Derevianko 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Derevianko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13088685
Hrytsenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back15% 8 of 54
Derevianko1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 79 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrytsenko5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrytsenko50%3 of 6
AwayDerevianko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrytsenko6Derevianko4n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrytsenko5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrytsenko4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Hrytsenko3Derevianko4n = 7Derevianko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrytsenkoDereviankoH − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.0−0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrytsenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 647 vs 463 / 97349.3%47.6%319 / 647 vs 463 / 973Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoHrytsenko 2.10/Derevianko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrytsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko—116481A. Derevianko—71111113
WSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko—12211113A. Derevianko—1011991
LAug 31 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko—1112761A. Derevianko—51411113
WAug 28 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko—61111113A. Derevianko—115721
WAug 25 · 06:50E. Hrytsenko—111176113A. Derevianko—85111172
LAug 24 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko—111198102A. Derevianko—961111123
WAug 21 · 12:20E. Hrytsenko—1211113A. Derevianko—10770
WAug 18 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko—71111113A. Derevianko—118871
LAug 17 · 18:00E. Hrytsenko—8950A. Derevianko—1111113
LAug 11 · 10:50E. Hrytsenko—8870A. Derevianko—1111113
E. Hrytsenko10
WSep 7 · 15:00E. Hrytsenko2.63117117113M. Mrykh1.4471181142LSep 7 · 13:30E. Hrytsenko2.63111080O. Strutinskiy1.441312113LSep 7 · 12:00E. Hrytsenko3.25117321V. Savoliuk1.3361111113WSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131LSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481LSep 4 · 08:50Y. Opryshchenko1.9111119113E. Hrytsenko1.80571171LSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113WSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113WSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 17:00E. Hrytsenko2.105121131M. Deineha1.6711148113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113LSep 7 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.67711116102M. Mrykh2.10118511123WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113
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