TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073305
Played Sep 4Finished
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114911113––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeEvhenii Hrytsenko to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvhenii Hrytsenko above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 68 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Evhenii Hrytsenko at 54.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Evhenii Hrytsenko 26–24 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 24 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrytsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-24 in 50
Hrytsenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrytsenko 1676 vs Nitchenko 1584
Hrytsenko
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrytsenko 40% vs Nitchenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrytsenko 50% vs Nitchenko 30%
Hrytsenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrytsenko -3 · Nitchenko +2
Hrytsenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hrytsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrytsenko 1.80 / Nitchenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrytsenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13073305
Hrytsenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Nitchenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 42 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back26% 14 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrytsenko6wins
AwayNitchenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrytsenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayNitchenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrytsenko6Nitchenko4n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrytsenko5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrytsenko7Nitchenko3n = 10Hrytsenko took 7 of 10
S4Hrytsenko5Nitchenko4n = 9Hrytsenko took 5 of 9
S5Hrytsenko2Nitchenko3n = 5Nitchenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrytsenkoNitchenkoH − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.439.2+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrytsenkoNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 648 vs 186 / 38148.9%48.8%317 / 648 vs 186 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrytsenkoHrytsenko 1.80/Nitchenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Hrytsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrytsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko—11115113I. Nitchenko—581141
WAug 11 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko—521111113I. Nitchenko—11119172
LAug 4 · 08:50E. Hrytsenko—91211542I. Nitchenko—1110811113
LJul 3 · 12:20E. Hrytsenko—104111252I. Nitchenko—1211610113
WMay 26 · 06:50E. Hrytsenko—1111133I. Nitchenko—77110
LMay 22 · 06:50E. Hrytsenko—12711982I. Nitchenko—1011911113
WMay 19 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko—111211113I. Nitchenko—914461
WMay 5 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko—111146123I. Nitchenko—661111102
WMay 1 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko—12117113I. Nitchenko—1021181
LApr 28 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko—561191I. Nitchenko—11116113
E. Hrytsenko10
LSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481LSep 4 · 08:50Y. Opryshchenko1.9111119113E. Hrytsenko1.80571171LSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113WSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113WSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 17:00E. Hrytsenko2.105121131M. Deineha1.6711148113WSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172WSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991WSep 3 · 12:30E. Hrytsenko1.83119611113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351111842LAug 31 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.83101111113E. Hrytsenko1.83123671
I. Nitchenko10
WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
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