TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467131
Played Aug 21Finished
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111161161210––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Strutinskiy above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Strutinskiy 20–17 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:15What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-17 in 37
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strutinskiy 1613 vs Nitchenko 1579
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strutinskiy 40% vs Nitchenko 20%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strutinskiy 30% vs Nitchenko 10%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strutinskiy -3 · Nitchenko +1
Strutinskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrutinskiy 1.73 / Nitchenko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467131
Strutinskiy1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 149 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it90% 82 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it76% 109 of 143
Nitchenko2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 49 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrutinskiy4wins
AwayNitchenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrutinskiy40%2 of 5
AwayNitchenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strutinskiy5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Strutinskiy5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Strutinskiy5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Strutinskiy4Nitchenko5n = 9Nitchenko took 5 of 9
S5Strutinskiy1Nitchenko2n = 3Nitchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrutinskiyNitchenkoS − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.338.2−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrutinskiyNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 769 vs 187 / 38150.7%49.1%390 / 769 vs 187 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyStrutinskiy 1.73/Nitchenko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy—41111113I. Nitchenko—116371
LAug 7 · 11:20O. Strutinskiy—13121241I. Nitchenko—151014113
LAug 4 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy—931191I. Nitchenko—11113113
WJul 21 · 05:50O. Strutinskiy—1111113I. Nitchenko—6850
LJul 17 · 15:30O. Strutinskiy—1186101I. Nitchenko—61111123
WJul 14 · 07:50O. Strutinskiy—11811113I. Nitchenko—811891
WJul 10 · 10:35O. Strutinskiy—511711113I. Nitchenko—11711762
LJul 7 · 12:20O. Strutinskiy—71111882I. Nitchenko—118611113
LJun 26 · 08:20O. Strutinskiy—11931142I. Nitchenko—511118113
LJun 23 · 09:50O. Strutinskiy—117531I. Nitchenko—61111113
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113LSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481WSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172LSep 3 · 14:00M. Deineha1.91861111113O. Strutinskiy1.8011117762WSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
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