TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073291
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116112––––
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 45 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 51–62 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Andrii Derevianko has won 51 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Strutinskiy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-62 in 113
Strutinskiy
Wrong
gap of 11 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1697 vs Strutinskiy 1742
Strutinskiy
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 80% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 70% vs Strutinskiy 50%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Strutinskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.00 / Strutinskiy 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073291
Derevianko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 128 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 189
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Strutinskiy1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 150 of 239
Up 2–0, closes it87% 77 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it73% 107 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayStrutinskiy6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDereviankon = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStrutinskiy66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko1Strutinskiy9n = 10Strutinskiy took 9 of 10
S2Derevianko7Strutinskiy3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S3Derevianko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko3Strutinskiy5n = 8Strutinskiy took 5 of 8
S5Derevianko3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.9−1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 972 vs 398 / 77847.4%51.2%461 / 972 vs 398 / 778Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyDerevianko 2.00/Strutinskiy 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko—811591O. Strutinskiy—11611113
LSep 1 · 07:50A. Derevianko—71111372O. Strutinskiy—115211113
LAug 31 · 13:00A. Derevianko—911101132O. Strutinskiy—116127113
WAug 28 · 09:50A. Derevianko—27161443O. Strutinskiy—1111141232
LAug 27 · 12:00A. Derevianko—9430O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 25 · 12:20A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—8860
LAug 24 · 18:30A. Derevianko—51011101O. Strutinskiy—11126123
WAug 21 · 07:50A. Derevianko—711815123O. Strutinskiy—1131113102
WAug 20 · 17:30A. Derevianko—811117113O. Strutinskiy—11771132
LAug 18 · 05:50A. Derevianko—81111692O. Strutinskiy—119711113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113LSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481WSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172LSep 3 · 14:00M. Deineha1.91861111113O. Strutinskiy1.8011117762WSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123LSep 1 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4061113133O. Strutinskiy2.7511711111
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