TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067683
Played Sep 3Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113115115––––
Yehor Opryshchenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYehor Opryshchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Yehor Opryshchenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 46 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Yehor Opryshchenko at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 6–9 Yehor Opryshchenko Andrii Derevianko has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:40What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Opryshchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Opryshchenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1665 vs Opryshchenko 1626
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Opryshchenko 0%
Derevianko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Opryshchenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -2 · Opryshchenko -5
Opryshchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Opryshchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.91 / Opryshchenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevianko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067683
Derevianko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Opryshchenko1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 38 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it72% 28 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko5wins
AwayOpryshchenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko33.3%2 of 6
AwayOpryshchenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko6Opryshchenko4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko7Opryshchenko3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S3Derevianko6Opryshchenko4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko2Opryshchenko7n = 9Opryshchenko took 7 of 9
S5Derevianko2Opryshchenko3n = 5Opryshchenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoOpryshchenkoD − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.4+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoOpryshchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 967 vs 50 / 10247.3%49%457 / 967 vs 50 / 102Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.91/Opryshchenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 08:50A. Derevianko—11129113Y. Opryshchenko—6101171
LAug 31 · 15:30A. Derevianko—1171061Y. Opryshchenko—41112113
LAug 25 · 10:20A. Derevianko—81111892Y. Opryshchenko—119711113
WAug 24 · 13:00A. Derevianko—1111113Y. Opryshchenko—8990
LAug 18 · 07:20A. Derevianko—1111961Y. Opryshchenko—71311113
WAug 17 · 17:00A. Derevianko—10111110113Y. Opryshchenko—12541292
WAug 15 · 12:20A. Derevianko—813118113Y. Opryshchenko—111161182
WAug 14 · 12:00A. Derevianko—71111113Y. Opryshchenko—116571
LAug 1 · 08:50A. Derevianko—11119892Y. Opryshchenko—421111113
LJul 31 · 09:50A. Derevianko—11611652Y. Opryshchenko—611911113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861
Y. Opryshchenko10
LSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650WSep 4 · 08:50Y. Opryshchenko1.9111119113E. Hrytsenko1.80571171WSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261WSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481LSep 3 · 19:00M. Deineha1.83118117113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351161152LSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 13:30V. Maksuta1.281111133Y. Opryshchenko3.5026110LSep 3 · 12:30E. Hrytsenko1.83119611113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351111842LSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113
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