TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055107
Played Sep 1Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1513511118116––
Anatolii Nazarov
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nazarov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Anatolii Nazarov below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Anatolii Nazarov at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 41–39 Anatolii Nazarov Anatolii Nazarov has won 39 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Nazarov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-39 in 80
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 2 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1678 vs Nazarov 1672
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Nazarov 40%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Nazarov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Nazarov -3
Nazarov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nazarov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nazarov form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.91 / Nazarov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nazarov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13055107
Derevianko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back23% 42 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Nazarov1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 56 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko6wins
AwayNazarov4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko75%3 of 4
AwayNazarov50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko4Nazarov6n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko6Nazarov4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko4Nazarov6n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko5Nazarov3n = 8Derevianko took 5 of 8
S5Derevianko3Nazarov2n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoNazarovD − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.741.2−1.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoNazarovBasisWin rate · lifetime463 / 977 vs 360 / 66447.4%54.2%463 / 977 vs 360 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NazarovDerevianko 1.91/Nazarov 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Nazarov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko—61112113A. Nazarov—1191091
LJul 30 · 16:30A. Derevianko—10680A. Nazarov—1211113
LJul 27 · 18:30A. Derevianko—11115932A. Nazarov—891111113
WJul 23 · 14:30A. Derevianko—1111610113A. Nazarov—94111282
WJul 20 · 14:30A. Derevianko—811118133A. Nazarov—116811112
WJul 13 · 14:30A. Derevianko—126911113A. Nazarov—101111672
WJul 9 · 18:30A. Derevianko—11115113A. Nazarov—251191
LJul 6 · 16:30A. Derevianko—56100A. Nazarov—1111123
WJul 2 · 14:30A. Derevianko—51411113A. Nazarov—1112881
LJun 29 · 16:30A. Derevianko—125111162A. Nazarov—141198113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113
A. Nazarov10
LSep 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov2.1011121111102O. Strutinskiy1.679101313123LSep 1 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.611111113A. Nazarov2.202940LSep 1 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711114113A. Nazarov2.10431141WSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 3 · 18:30A. Nazarov1.73159118113A. Derevianko2.00131131132WAug 3 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.634940A. Nazarov1.441111113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Nazarov2.007590O. Strutinskiy1.731111113LAug 3 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi1.6111118113A. Nazarov2.20561181WAug 3 · 13:00A. Nazarov2.751111113A. Lievshin1.407420LAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.8361112113A. Nazarov1.831191091
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