TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352470
Played Aug 3Finished
Anatolii Nazarov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114112––––
Anatolii Lievshin
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Lievshin to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Anatolii Lievshin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 46 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Anatolii Lievshin at 73.3%
46 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 7–8 Anatolii Lievshin Anatolii Nazarov has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:44What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lievshin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1686 vs Lievshin 1808
Lievshin
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 40% vs Lievshin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 60% vs Lievshin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov -2 · Lievshin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lievshin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lievshin form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 2.75 / Lievshin 1.40
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Lievshin)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12352470
Nazarov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Lievshin1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 79 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 60 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov5wins
AwayLievshin5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov100%4 of 4
AwayLievshin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov4Lievshin6n = 10Lievshin took 6 of 10
S2Nazarov6Lievshin4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S3Nazarov6Lievshin4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Nazarov0Lievshin4n = 4Lievshin took 4 of 4
S5Nazarov2Lievshin1n = 3Nazarov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovLievshinN − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.435.2−0.8per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovLievshinBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 710 vs 120 / 20453.7%58.8%381 / 710 vs 120 / 204Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LievshinNazarov 2.75/Lievshin 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Lievshin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nazarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 13:00A. Nazarov—111563113A. Lievshin—913111162
WJul 27 · 14:30A. Nazarov—8111112113A. Lievshin—11951472
LJul 23 · 15:30A. Nazarov—71111742A. Lievshin—115111113
LJul 20 · 15:30A. Nazarov—5680A. Lievshin—1111113
LJul 17 · 14:00A. Nazarov—8840A. Lievshin—1111113
LJul 13 · 16:30A. Nazarov—6960A. Lievshin—1111113
WJul 9 · 13:00A. Nazarov—1111113A. Lievshin—6660
WJul 6 · 13:00A. Nazarov—1111113A. Lievshin—9880
WJul 2 · 13:00A. Nazarov—1112113A. Lievshin—81070
LJun 29 · 15:30A. Nazarov—12141181A. Lievshin—14169113
A. Nazarov10
LSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861LSep 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov2.1011121111102O. Strutinskiy1.679101313123LSep 1 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.611111113A. Nazarov2.202940LSep 1 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711114113A. Nazarov2.10431141WSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 3 · 18:30A. Nazarov1.73159118113A. Derevianko2.00131131132WAug 3 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.634940A. Nazarov1.441111113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Nazarov2.007590O. Strutinskiy1.731111113LAug 3 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi1.6111118113A. Nazarov2.20561181LAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.8361112113A. Nazarov1.831191091
A. Lievshin10
LSep 4 · 17:40V. Savoliuk2.2511811113A. Lievshin1.57811961WSep 4 · 16:10A. Lievshin1.7351111113A. Yurkov2.00118861LSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 12:10V. Voronenko1.912870A. Lievshin1.801111113WSep 4 · 11:10A. Hrabskyi3.755511101A. Lievshin1.2511119123WSep 2 · 12:50A. Hrabskyi3.403560A. Lievshin1.301111113WSep 2 · 11:20A. Lievshin1.8011611113A. Yurkov1.91711961WSep 2 · 09:20O. Seliuchenko1.801111411A. Lievshin1.9113811113WSep 2 · 07:20Y. Shmyndra1.73811561A. Lievshin2.0011511113LSep 2 · 06:20V. Marushchak1.671211711123A. Lievshin2.101013118102
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