TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352466
Played Aug 3Finished
Anatolii Nazarov
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1513911113811113
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:42 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeAnatolii Nazarov to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAnatolii Nazarov above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 95 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Anatolii Nazarov at 54.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Anatolii Nazarov 39–41 Andrii Derevianko Anatolii Nazarov has won 39 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:42What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nazarov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-41 in 80
Derevianko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nazarov 1686 vs Derevianko 1630
Nazarov
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nazarov 40% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nazarov 40% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nazarov +1 · Derevianko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Nazarov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNazarov 1.73 / Derevianko 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Nazarov)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12352466
Nazarov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 72 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Derevianko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 113 of 296
Down 0–1, comes back21% 36 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNazarov4wins
AwayDerevianko6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNazarov50%3 of 6
AwayDerevianko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nazarov6Derevianko4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S2Nazarov4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Nazarov6Derevianko4n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Nazarov3Derevianko5n = 8Derevianko took 5 of 8
S5Nazarov2Derevianko3n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNazarovDereviankoN − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.7+1.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNazarovDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 714 vs 458 / 97453.6%47%383 / 714 vs 458 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NazarovNazarov 1.73/Derevianko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Nazarov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nazarov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 12:50A. Nazarov—1191091A. Derevianko—61112113
WJul 30 · 16:30A. Nazarov—1211113A. Derevianko—10680
WJul 27 · 18:30A. Nazarov—891111113A. Derevianko—11115932
LJul 23 · 14:30A. Nazarov—94111282A. Derevianko—1111610113
LJul 20 · 14:30A. Nazarov—116811112A. Derevianko—811118133
LJul 13 · 14:30A. Nazarov—101111672A. Derevianko—126911113
LJul 9 · 18:30A. Nazarov—251191A. Derevianko—11115113
WJul 6 · 16:30A. Nazarov—1111123A. Derevianko—56100
LJul 2 · 14:30A. Nazarov—1112881A. Derevianko—51411113
WJun 29 · 16:30A. Nazarov—141198113A. Derevianko—125111162
A. Nazarov10
LSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861LSep 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov2.1011121111102O. Strutinskiy1.679101313123LSep 1 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.611111113A. Nazarov2.202940LSep 1 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711114113A. Nazarov2.10431141WSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 3 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.634940A. Nazarov1.441111113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Nazarov2.007590O. Strutinskiy1.731111113LAug 3 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi1.6111118113A. Nazarov2.20561181WAug 3 · 13:00A. Nazarov2.751111113A. Lievshin1.407420LAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.8361112113A. Nazarov1.831191091
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861WAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.8361112113A. Nazarov1.831191091
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