TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073240
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511131112101210––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 61.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 10–25 Ivan Nitchenko Andrii Derevianko has won 10 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Nitchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-25 in 35
Nitchenko
Wrong
gap of 15 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1723 vs Nitchenko 1575
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 40% vs Nitchenko 20%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 50% vs Nitchenko 10%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko -1 · Nitchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.63 / Nitchenko 1.44
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Nitchenko)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13073240
Derevianko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 130 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back23% 44 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 100
Nitchenko1.44
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko2wins
AwayNitchenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDereviankon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNitchenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko2Nitchenko8n = 10Nitchenko took 8 of 10
S2Derevianko5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko3Nitchenko4n = 7Nitchenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoD − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.1−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 970 vs 186 / 38247.5%48.7%461 / 970 vs 186 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoDerevianko 2.63/Nitchenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko—51312123I. Nitchenko—111110101
LAug 21 · 11:20A. Derevianko—91181172I. Nitchenko—113116113
WAug 11 · 11:50A. Derevianko—1111113I. Nitchenko—6940
LAug 7 · 09:20A. Derevianko—81090I. Nitchenko—1112113
LAug 4 · 11:50A. Derevianko—8111271I. Nitchenko—11414113
LJul 31 · 10:50A. Derevianko—89110I. Nitchenko—1111133
LJul 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko—731171I. Nitchenko—11115113
LJul 21 · 11:50A. Derevianko—811611102I. Nitchenko—115117123
LJul 14 · 08:50A. Derevianko—9611121I. Nitchenko—11119143
LJul 10 · 07:05A. Derevianko—1148101I. Nitchenko—61111123
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
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