TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466932
Played Aug 21Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1179117111152119
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 21-19
Point 112 set 5, 21-19 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 64.5%
112 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 4–0 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mrykh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Mrykh
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1689 vs Nitchenko 1569
Mrykh
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 20% vs Nitchenko 0%
Mrykh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Nitchenko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -3 · Nitchenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Mrykh) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.50 / Nitchenko 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Mrykh)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12466932
Mrykh1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 56 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it77% 39 of 51
Nitchenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 49 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back14% 5 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMrykh4wins
AwayNitchenko0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderMrykh leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%3 of 3
AwayNitchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh3Nitchenko1n = 4Mrykh took 3 of 4
S2Mrykh3Nitchenko1n = 4Mrykh took 3 of 4
S3Mrykh1Nitchenko3n = 4Nitchenko took 3 of 4
S4Mrykh3Nitchenko0n = 3Mrykh took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricMrykhNitchenkoM − NBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match47.238.2+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 506 vs 187 / 38245.1%49%228 / 506 vs 187 / 382Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.50/Nitchenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh—119711213I. Nitchenko—711115192
WJul 28 · 06:50M. Mrykh—711611143I. Nitchenko—117113122
WApr 20 · 11:40M. Mrykh—1111113I. Nitchenko—3590
WFeb 20 · 18:10M. Mrykh—111610113I. Nitchenko—7141261
M. Mrykh10
WSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.201131191A. Derevianko1.6171113113WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.20111410113O. Strutinskiy1.616121271WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132LSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 21 · 11:50M. Deineha1.5791180M. Mrykh2.251113113WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3811411113O. Strutinskiy1.53711671WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.25111239113A. Derevianko1.57810111182WAug 21 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.671111113E. Hrytsenko2.109860LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.1033100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
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