TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055221
Played Sep 1Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1173111113911––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 59.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 39–89 Andrii Derevianko Maksym Mrykh has won 39 of their 128 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-89 in 128
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 50 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1705 vs Derevianko 1665
Mrykh
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 80% vs Derevianko 60%
Mrykh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 70% vs Derevianko 40%
Mrykh
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +2 · Derevianko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.20 / Derevianko 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Derevianko)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13055221
Mrykh2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Derevianko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 80 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh4wins
AwayDerevianko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh66.7%4 of 6
AwayDerevianko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh6Derevianko4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S2Mrykh4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Mrykh5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrykh0Derevianko6n = 6Derevianko took 6 of 6
S5Mrykh2Derevianko1n = 3Mrykh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhDereviankoM − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.037.7−4.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 490 vs 462 / 97845.5%47.2%223 / 490 vs 462 / 978Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMrykh 2.20/Derevianko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh—111239113A. Derevianko—810111182
LAug 18 · 11:50M. Mrykh—6111061A. Derevianko—11812113
WAug 15 · 10:20M. Mrykh—1111113A. Derevianko—7770
WAug 6 · 16:00M. Mrykh—129118113A. Derevianko—101181192
LAug 1 · 07:50M. Mrykh—851161A. Derevianko—11114113
LJul 28 · 11:08M. Mrykh—1150A. Derevianko—1111113
LJul 28 · 09:20M. Mrykh—1137151A. Derevianko—61111173
WJul 27 · 12:00M. Mrykh—1111113A. Derevianko—9660
LDec 8 · 13:10M. Mrykh—11611862A. Derevianko—711811113
LDec 3 · 07:20M. Mrykh—8650A. Derevianko—1111113
M. Mrykh10
WSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.20111410113O. Strutinskiy1.616121271WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132LSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 21 · 11:50M. Deineha1.5791180M. Mrykh2.251113113WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3811411113O. Strutinskiy1.53711671WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.25111239113A. Derevianko1.57810111182WAug 21 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.671111113E. Hrytsenko2.109860WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.1033100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.25111239113A. Derevianko1.57810111182
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