TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467214
Played Aug 21Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 56 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 7–5 Evhenii Hrytsenko Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:06What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mrykh
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Mrykh
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1621 vs Hrytsenko 1697
Hrytsenko
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Hrytsenko 80%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Hrytsenko 70%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +1 · Hrytsenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Mrykh) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.67 / Hrytsenko 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Mrykh)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467214
Mrykh1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 54 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Hrytsenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 77 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back27% 24 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh6wins
AwayHrytsenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMrykh leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh57.1%4 of 7
AwayHrytsenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh7Hrytsenko3n = 10Mrykh took 7 of 10
S2Mrykh7Hrytsenko3n = 10Mrykh took 7 of 10
S3Mrykh6Hrytsenko4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S4Mrykh3Hrytsenko4n = 7Hrytsenko took 4 of 7
S5Mrykh1Hrytsenko2n = 3Hrytsenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhHrytsenkoM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.437.9−0.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 507 vs 306 / 62844.4%48.7%225 / 507 vs 306 / 628Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.67/Hrytsenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 10:50M. Mrykh—11114882E. Hrytsenko—781111113
WJul 19 · 08:00M. Mrykh—1111111113E. Hrytsenko—13891172
WJul 14 · 10:40M. Mrykh—1111113E. Hrytsenko—7890
WJul 9 · 13:10M. Mrykh—31111113E. Hrytsenko—116951
LJul 8 · 16:40M. Mrykh—32111282E. Hrytsenko—1111910113
WJul 2 · 14:10M. Mrykh—1111113E. Hrytsenko—5590
WJun 18 · 16:40M. Mrykh—1112113E. Hrytsenko—81090
WJun 3 · 15:10M. Mrykh—11126123E. Hrytsenko—71011101
LMay 21 · 10:40M. Mrykh—113881E. Hrytsenko—81111113
LMay 13 · 12:10M. Mrykh—1120761E. Hrytsenko—72211113
M. Mrykh10
WSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.201131191A. Derevianko1.6171113113WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.20111410113O. Strutinskiy1.616121271WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132LSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 21 · 11:50M. Deineha1.5791180M. Mrykh2.251113113WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3811411113O. Strutinskiy1.53711671WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.25111239113A. Derevianko1.57810111182WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.1033100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123
E. Hrytsenko10
WSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131LSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481LSep 4 · 08:50Y. Opryshchenko1.9111119113E. Hrytsenko1.80571171LSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113WSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113WSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 17:00E. Hrytsenko2.105121131M. Deineha1.6711148113WSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172WSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991WSep 3 · 12:30E. Hrytsenko1.83119611113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351111842
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