TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073462
Played Sep 4Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116114118––
Evhenii Hrytsenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 21–16 Evhenii Hrytsenko Evhenii Hrytsenko has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1712 vs Hrytsenko 1687
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 80% vs Hrytsenko 40%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 70% vs Hrytsenko 50%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +3 · Hrytsenko -2
Derevianko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.80 / Hrytsenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevianko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073462
Derevianko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 80 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it86% 55 of 64
Hrytsenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back30% 28 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back15% 8 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayHrytsenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko50%2 of 4
AwayHrytsenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko4Hrytsenko6n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko5Hrytsenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Derevianko3Hrytsenko4n = 7Hrytsenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoHrytsenkoD − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.7−0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime462 / 973 vs 317 / 64747.5%49%462 / 973 vs 317 / 647Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.80/Hrytsenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 14:30A. Derevianko—1011991E. Hrytsenko—12211113
WAug 31 · 14:30A. Derevianko—51411113E. Hrytsenko—1112761
LAug 28 · 10:50A. Derevianko—115721E. Hrytsenko—61111113
LAug 25 · 06:50A. Derevianko—85111172E. Hrytsenko—111176113
WAug 24 · 16:30A. Derevianko—961111123E. Hrytsenko—111198102
LAug 21 · 12:20A. Derevianko—10770E. Hrytsenko—1211113
LAug 18 · 08:50A. Derevianko—118871E. Hrytsenko—71111113
WAug 17 · 18:00A. Derevianko—1111113E. Hrytsenko—8950
WAug 11 · 10:50A. Derevianko—1111113E. Hrytsenko—8870
LAug 10 · 18:00A. Derevianko—1111971E. Hrytsenko—13711113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861
E. Hrytsenko10
WSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131LSep 4 · 08:50Y. Opryshchenko1.9111119113E. Hrytsenko1.80571171LSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113WSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113WSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 17:00E. Hrytsenko2.105121131M. Deineha1.6711148113WSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172WSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991WSep 3 · 12:30E. Hrytsenko1.83119611113Y. Opryshchenko1.8351111842LAug 31 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.83101111113E. Hrytsenko1.83123671
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