TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067199
Played Sep 3Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116511911––
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Strutinskiy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleksandr Strutinskiy at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 51–61 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Andrii Derevianko has won 51 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strutinskiy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-61 in 112
Strutinskiy
Correct
gap of 10 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1691 vs Strutinskiy 1731
Strutinskiy
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Strutinskiy 40%
Derevianko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 60% vs Strutinskiy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +2 · Strutinskiy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Strutinskiy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.91 / Strutinskiy 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Strutinskiy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067199
Derevianko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 101
Strutinskiy1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 148 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it88% 77 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it74% 106 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko4wins
AwayStrutinskiy6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderStrutinskiy leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDereviankon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStrutinskiy62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko2Strutinskiy8n = 10Strutinskiy took 8 of 10
S2Derevianko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S3Derevianko6Strutinskiy4n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko3Strutinskiy5n = 8Strutinskiy took 5 of 8
S5Derevianko3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyD − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.841.2−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 969 vs 396 / 77547.4%51.1%459 / 969 vs 396 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrutinskiyDerevianko 1.91/Strutinskiy 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Strutinskiy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:50A. Derevianko—71111372O. Strutinskiy—115211113
LAug 31 · 13:00A. Derevianko—911101132O. Strutinskiy—116127113
WAug 28 · 09:50A. Derevianko—27161443O. Strutinskiy—1111141232
LAug 27 · 12:00A. Derevianko—9430O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WAug 25 · 12:20A. Derevianko—1111113O. Strutinskiy—8860
LAug 24 · 18:30A. Derevianko—51011101O. Strutinskiy—11126123
WAug 21 · 07:50A. Derevianko—711815123O. Strutinskiy—1131113102
WAug 20 · 17:30A. Derevianko—811117113O. Strutinskiy—11771132
LAug 18 · 05:50A. Derevianko—81111692O. Strutinskiy—119711113
LAug 17 · 12:30A. Derevianko—1110731O. Strutinskiy—81211113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113WSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113LSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481WSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172LSep 3 · 14:00M. Deineha1.91861111113O. Strutinskiy1.8011117762WSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123LSep 1 · 12:20V. Savoliuk1.4061113133O. Strutinskiy2.7511711111
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