TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467054
Played Aug 21Finished
Maksym Mrykh
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181210311911118
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 94 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 62.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 38–89 Andrii Derevianko Maksym Mrykh has won 38 of their 127 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevianko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-89 in 127
Derevianko
Wrong
gap of 51 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1638 vs Derevianko 1727
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 40% vs Derevianko 100%
Derevianko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 30% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh +2 · Derevianko +5
Derevianko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 2.25 / Derevianko 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Derevianko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467054
Mrykh2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 24 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back12% 4 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Derevianko1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 80 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it88% 58 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh3wins
AwayDerevianko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh60%3 of 5
AwayDerevianko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mrykh3Derevianko7n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S3Mrykh6Derevianko4n = 10Mrykh took 6 of 10
S4Mrykh1Derevianko5n = 6Derevianko took 5 of 6
S5Mrykh1Derevianko2n = 3Derevianko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhDereviankoM − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.237.8−5.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 508 vs 463 / 97144.5%47.7%226 / 508 vs 463 / 971Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMrykh 2.25/Derevianko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mrykh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 11:50M. Mrykh—6111061A. Derevianko—11812113
WAug 15 · 10:20M. Mrykh—1111113A. Derevianko—7770
WAug 6 · 16:00M. Mrykh—129118113A. Derevianko—101181192
LAug 1 · 07:50M. Mrykh—851161A. Derevianko—11114113
LJul 28 · 11:08M. Mrykh—1150A. Derevianko—1111113
LJul 28 · 09:20M. Mrykh—1137151A. Derevianko—61111173
WJul 27 · 12:00M. Mrykh—1111113A. Derevianko—9660
LDec 8 · 13:10M. Mrykh—11611862A. Derevianko—711811113
LDec 3 · 07:20M. Mrykh—8650A. Derevianko—1111113
LDec 2 · 17:50M. Mrykh—55111162A. Derevianko—111179113
M. Mrykh10
WSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.201131191A. Derevianko1.6171113113WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.20111410113O. Strutinskiy1.616121271WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132LSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 21 · 11:50M. Deineha1.5791180M. Mrykh2.251113113WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3811411113O. Strutinskiy1.53711671WAug 21 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.671111113E. Hrytsenko2.109860WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 20 · 19:00M. Mrykh2.1033100O. Strutinskiy1.671111123
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991WSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.201131191A. Derevianko1.6171113113
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