TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073467
Played Sep 4Finished
Yevhen Skorobahatyi
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71110121210711––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:08 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 80 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 66.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 7–17 Ivan Nitchenko Yevhen Skorobahatyi has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1603 vs Nitchenko 1551
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 20% vs Nitchenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 40% vs Nitchenko 10%
Skorobahatyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi -3 · Nitchenko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 2.50 / Nitchenko 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Nitchenko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13073467
Skorobahatyi2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 19 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Nitchenko1.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 49 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 36 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi3wins
AwayNitchenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi28.6%2 of 7
AwayNitchenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi7Nitchenko3n = 10Skorobahatyi took 7 of 10
S2Skorobahatyi3Nitchenko7n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S3Skorobahatyi4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S4Skorobahatyi4Nitchenko5n = 9Nitchenko took 5 of 9
S5Skorobahatyi1Nitchenko4n = 5Nitchenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiNitchenkoS − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.740.3+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 279 vs 184 / 37948.4%48.6%135 / 279 vs 184 / 379Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoSkorobahatyi 2.50/Nitchenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 12:50Y. Skorobahatyi—1211911113I. Nitchenko—14811742
LAug 4 · 07:20Y. Skorobahatyi—1181081I. Nitchenko—21112113
WJul 3 · 07:50Y. Skorobahatyi—11912113I. Nitchenko—6111051
LMar 13 · 10:50Y. Skorobahatyi—111111982I. Nitchenko—341311113
LSep 3 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi—8720I. Nitchenko—1111113
LAug 30 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi—11143382I. Nitchenko—6121111103
LAug 27 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi—910111172I. Nitchenko—111228113
LAug 23 · 14:10Y. Skorobahatyi—1110851I. Nitchenko—61211113
LAug 13 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi—12411972I. Nitchenko—1011811113
WJul 16 · 15:57Y. Skorobahatyi—11713113I. Nitchenko—5111141
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650LSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492LSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113LAug 27 · 18:00A. Derevianko1.401111113Y. Skorobahatyi2.753680WAug 27 · 17:00Y. Skorobahatyi1.911111137113M. Deineha1.8096151182LAug 27 · 16:00Y. Skorobahatyi2.383540O. Strutinskiy1.531111113WAug 27 · 14:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.751211113V. Maksuta1.4010980LAug 27 · 12:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.638560A. Zozulia1.441111113WAug 7 · 12:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.631211911113I. Nitchenko1.4414811742
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 7 · 12:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.631211911113I. Nitchenko1.4414811742
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