TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022727
Played Aug 27Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113116118––––
Yevhen Skorobahatyi
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Yevhen Skorobahatyi below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 50 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 70.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 20–4 Yevhen Skorobahatyi Yevhen Skorobahatyi has won 4 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-4 in 24
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 16 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1678 vs Skorobahatyi 1633
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 80% vs Skorobahatyi 60%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 40% vs Skorobahatyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +3 · Skorobahatyi +1
Derevianko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skorobahatyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 1.40 / Skorobahatyi 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Derevianko)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13022727
Derevianko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 78 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Skorobahatyi2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko7wins
AwaySkorobahatyi3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevianko100%4 of 4
AwaySkorobahatyi50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko4Skorobahatyi6n = 10Skorobahatyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevianko5Skorobahatyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko7Skorobahatyi3n = 10Derevianko took 7 of 10
S4Derevianko6Skorobahatyi2n = 8Derevianko took 6 of 8
S5Derevianko3Skorobahatyi2n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoSkorobahatyiD − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.7+4.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoSkorobahatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 969 vs 138 / 28147.2%49.1%457 / 969 vs 138 / 281Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoDerevianko 1.40/Skorobahatyi 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 06:50A. Derevianko—81111113Y. Skorobahatyi—117861
WAug 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko—81116113Y. Skorobahatyi—1191461
LJul 3 · 10:50A. Derevianko—8990Y. Skorobahatyi—1111113
LApr 17 · 12:20A. Derevianko—89111182Y. Skorobahatyi—111186113
WApr 11 · 11:50A. Derevianko—119916113Y. Skorobahatyi—911111472
WMar 13 · 07:20A. Derevianko—11411113Y. Skorobahatyi—711761
WMar 12 · 17:20A. Derevianko—1111113Y. Skorobahatyi—8340
WFeb 20 · 14:10A. Derevianko—911119103Y. Skorobahatyi—11671162
WFeb 6 · 12:05A. Derevianko—1111911103Y. Skorobahatyi—79111382
LJan 27 · 13:50A. Derevianko—310111172Y. Skorobahatyi—111268113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650LSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492LSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113WAug 27 · 17:00Y. Skorobahatyi1.911111137113M. Deineha1.8096151182LAug 27 · 16:00Y. Skorobahatyi2.383540O. Strutinskiy1.531111113WAug 27 · 14:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.751211113V. Maksuta1.4010980LAug 27 · 12:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.638560A. Zozulia1.441111113WAug 7 · 12:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.631211911113I. Nitchenko1.4414811742
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