TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12374676
Played Aug 7Finished
Yevhen Skorobahatyi
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214118911117114
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYevhen Skorobahatyi above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 98 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 73.3%
98 points played in total.
H2H Yevhen Skorobahatyi 6–17 Ivan Nitchenko Yevhen Skorobahatyi has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Nitchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Nitchenko
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skorobahatyi 1612 vs Nitchenko 1659
Nitchenko
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skorobahatyi 40% vs Nitchenko 80%
Nitchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skorobahatyi 30% vs Nitchenko 80%
Nitchenko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skorobahatyi +1 · Nitchenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Nitchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkorobahatyi 2.63 / Nitchenko 1.44
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Nitchenko)+8.8pp
Setka Cup · #12374676
Skorobahatyi2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 16 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Nitchenko1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 53 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkorobahatyi2wins
AwayNitchenko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkorobahatyi25%2 of 8
AwayNitchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skorobahatyi8Nitchenko2n = 10Skorobahatyi took 8 of 10
S2Skorobahatyi2Nitchenko8n = 10Nitchenko took 8 of 10
S3Skorobahatyi5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Skorobahatyi3Nitchenko6n = 9Nitchenko took 6 of 9
S5Skorobahatyi0Nitchenko5n = 5Nitchenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkorobahatyiNitchenkoS − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.540.6−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkorobahatyiNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 300 vs 193 / 38648%50%144 / 300 vs 193 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoSkorobahatyi 2.63/Nitchenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.3%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skorobahatyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 07:20Y. Skorobahatyi—1181081I. Nitchenko—21112113
WJul 3 · 07:50Y. Skorobahatyi—11912113I. Nitchenko—6111051
LMar 13 · 10:50Y. Skorobahatyi—111111982I. Nitchenko—341311113
LSep 3 · 13:40Y. Skorobahatyi—8720I. Nitchenko—1111113
LAug 30 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi—11143382I. Nitchenko—6121111103
LAug 27 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi—910111172I. Nitchenko—111228113
LAug 23 · 14:10Y. Skorobahatyi—1110851I. Nitchenko—61211113
LAug 13 · 14:40Y. Skorobahatyi—12411972I. Nitchenko—1011811113
WJul 16 · 15:57Y. Skorobahatyi—11713113I. Nitchenko—5111141
LJul 16 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi—11811482I. Nitchenko—911511113
Y. Skorobahatyi10
LSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 10:20Y. Opryshchenko1.801111113Y. Skorobahatyi1.915650LSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492LSep 4 · 06:50Y. Skorobahatyi2.20913381E. Hrytsenko1.61111111113LAug 27 · 18:00A. Derevianko1.401111113Y. Skorobahatyi2.753680WAug 27 · 17:00Y. Skorobahatyi1.911111137113M. Deineha1.8096151182LAug 27 · 16:00Y. Skorobahatyi2.383540O. Strutinskiy1.531111113WAug 27 · 14:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.751211113V. Maksuta1.4010980LAug 27 · 12:30Y. Skorobahatyi2.638560A. Zozulia1.441111113
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192
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