TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466912
Played Aug 21Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119311118611117
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 55.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 25–9 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 9 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:11What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-9 in 34
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 16 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1579 vs Derevianko 1685
Derevianko
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 0% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 10% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -5 · Derevianko -1
Nitchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nitchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.57 / Derevianko 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Nitchenko)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12466912
Nitchenko1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 52 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Derevianko2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 125 of 320
Down 0–1, comes back23% 42 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko8wins
AwayDerevianko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko100%7 of 7
AwayDerevianko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko7Derevianko3n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S2Nitchenko6Derevianko4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S3Nitchenko7Derevianko3n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S4Nitchenko4Derevianko3n = 7Nitchenko took 4 of 7
S5Nitchenko2Derevianko1n = 3Nitchenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoN − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.036.7+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 381 vs 463 / 97449.1%47.5%187 / 381 vs 463 / 974Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.57/Derevianko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko—113116113A. Derevianko—91181172
LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—6940A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 7 · 09:20I. Nitchenko—1112113A. Derevianko—81090
WAug 4 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—11414113A. Derevianko—8111271
WJul 31 · 10:50I. Nitchenko—1111133A. Derevianko—89110
WJul 28 · 08:20I. Nitchenko—11115113A. Derevianko—731171
WJul 21 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—115117123A. Derevianko—811611102
WJul 14 · 08:50I. Nitchenko—11119143A. Derevianko—9611121
WJul 10 · 07:05I. Nitchenko—61111123A. Derevianko—1148101
LJul 7 · 07:50I. Nitchenko—11211892A. Derevianko—1110711113
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192LAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991WAug 11 · 11:50I. Nitchenko1.406940A. Derevianko2.751111113
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