TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12398459
Played Aug 11Finished
Ivan Nitchenko
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911411––––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 52 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 70.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 24–8 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 8 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:22What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nitchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-8 in 32
Nitchenko
Wrong
gap of 16 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1602 vs Derevianko 1653
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 0% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 40% vs Derevianko 60%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -5 · Derevianko +1
Nitchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Nitchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.40 / Derevianko 2.75
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Nitchenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12398459
Nitchenko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite66% won 55 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Derevianko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 118 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko8wins
AwayDerevianko2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko100%7 of 7
AwayDerevianko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko7Derevianko3n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S2Nitchenko6Derevianko4n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S3Nitchenko7Derevianko3n = 10Nitchenko took 7 of 10
S4Nitchenko5Derevianko2n = 7Nitchenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoN − DBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.435.9+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 386 vs 459 / 97849.5%46.9%191 / 386 vs 459 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.40/Derevianko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 7 · 09:20I. Nitchenko—1112113A. Derevianko—81090
WAug 4 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—11414113A. Derevianko—8111271
WJul 31 · 10:50I. Nitchenko—1111133A. Derevianko—89110
WJul 28 · 08:20I. Nitchenko—11115113A. Derevianko—731171
WJul 21 · 11:50I. Nitchenko—115117123A. Derevianko—811611102
WJul 14 · 08:50I. Nitchenko—11119143A. Derevianko—9611121
WJul 10 · 07:05I. Nitchenko—61111123A. Derevianko—1148101
LJul 7 · 07:50I. Nitchenko—11211892A. Derevianko—1110711113
LJul 3 · 09:50I. Nitchenko—10130A. Derevianko—1211113
WJun 26 · 10:20I. Nitchenko—11511143A. Derevianko—7117121
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172
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