TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12352503
Played Aug 3Finished
Yehor Riadynskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116811118––
Anatolii Nazarov
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Anatolii Nazarov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 59.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 57–51 Anatolii Nazarov Anatolii Nazarov has won 51 of their 108 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Riadynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
57-51 in 108
Riadynskyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1630 vs Nazarov 1705
Nazarov
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Nazarov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 30% vs Nazarov 60%
Nazarov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi -1 · Nazarov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Riadynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Riadynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.61 / Nazarov 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Riadynskyi)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12352503
Riadynskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 196 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it92% 94 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it80% 140 of 175
Nazarov2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 50 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back22% 19 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi7wins
AwayNazarov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRiadynskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi77.8%7 of 9
AwayNazarovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi9Nazarov1n = 10Riadynskyi took 9 of 10
S2Riadynskyi7Nazarov3n = 10Riadynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Riadynskyi4Nazarov6n = 10Nazarov took 6 of 10
S4Riadynskyi4Nazarov5n = 9Nazarov took 5 of 9
S5Riadynskyi2Nazarov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiNazarovR − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.8+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiNazarovBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 717 vs 382 / 71156.8%53.7%407 / 717 vs 382 / 711Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.61/Nazarov 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Riadynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi—11118962A. Nazarov—661111113
WJul 27 · 15:30Y. Riadynskyi—1111113A. Nazarov—7880
WJul 23 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi—11118113A. Nazarov—761171
WJul 20 · 18:30Y. Riadynskyi—111199113A. Nazarov—85111142
LJul 17 · 17:00Y. Riadynskyi—11111191A. Nazarov—91313113
WJul 13 · 13:00Y. Riadynskyi—131111113A. Nazarov—1171371
WJul 9 · 15:30Y. Riadynskyi—115118113A. Nazarov—81161182
LJul 6 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi—512111352A. Nazarov—1110815113
WJul 2 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi—11127113A. Nazarov—6101181
WJun 29 · 14:30Y. Riadynskyi—11811113A. Nazarov—811581
Y. Riadynskyi10
LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123LAug 28 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi1.5761090E. Hrytsenko2.251112113LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6751140V. Maksuta2.101113113WAug 20 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.83116611113M. Deineha1.8351111792WAug 20 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.80158119113M. Mrykh1.91131171192WAug 20 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.611111113O. Strutinskiy2.208790LAug 20 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi1.5012670A. Derevianko2.501411113
A. Nazarov10
LSep 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.9115511113A. Nazarov1.801311861LSep 1 · 11:20A. Nazarov2.1011121111102O. Strutinskiy1.679101313123LSep 1 · 09:20V. Savoliuk1.611111113A. Nazarov2.202940LSep 1 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711114113A. Nazarov2.10431141WSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 3 · 18:30A. Nazarov1.73159118113A. Derevianko2.00131131132WAug 3 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.634940A. Nazarov1.441111113LAug 3 · 15:30A. Nazarov2.007590O. Strutinskiy1.731111113WAug 3 · 13:00A. Nazarov2.751111113A. Lievshin1.407420LAug 1 · 12:50A. Derevianko1.8361112113A. Nazarov1.831191091
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