TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462174
Played Aug 20Finished
Yehor Riadynskyi
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214611711––––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 61 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 65.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 66–31 Andrii Derevianko Andrii Derevianko has won 31 of their 97 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Riadynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-31 in 97
Riadynskyi
Wrong
gap of 35 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1678 vs Derevianko 1649
Riadynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 20% vs Derevianko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 50% vs Derevianko 30%
Riadynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi -1 · Derevianko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Riadynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.50 / Derevianko 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Riadynskyi)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462174
Riadynskyi1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 201 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it92% 98 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 183
Derevianko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 123 of 318
Down 0–1, comes back22% 41 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi5wins
AwayDerevianko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi100%4 of 4
AwayDerevianko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Riadynskyi5Derevianko5n = 10split evenly
S3Riadynskyi4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Riadynskyi5Derevianko1n = 6Riadynskyi took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiDereviankoR − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.535.7−2.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 730 vs 457 / 96457%47.4%416 / 730 vs 457 / 964Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.50/Derevianko 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.5%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 6 · 14:00Y. Riadynskyi—1111811102A. Derevianko—138116123
LAug 4 · 08:20Y. Riadynskyi—7840A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 3 · 16:00Y. Riadynskyi—11115143A. Derevianko—7911121
WJul 31 · 11:50Y. Riadynskyi—81111113A. Derevianko—119961
LJul 30 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi—7550A. Derevianko—1111113
LJul 28 · 06:20Y. Riadynskyi—6680A. Derevianko—1111113
WJul 27 · 17:30Y. Riadynskyi—1112113A. Derevianko—81080
LJul 25 · 07:20Y. Riadynskyi—691161A. Derevianko—11117113
WJul 24 · 09:50Y. Riadynskyi—11611133A. Derevianko—7117111
WJul 23 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi—11116113A. Derevianko—571191
Y. Riadynskyi10
LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123LAug 28 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi1.5761090E. Hrytsenko2.251112113LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6751140V. Maksuta2.101113113WAug 20 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.83116611113M. Deineha1.8351111792WAug 20 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.80158119113M. Mrykh1.91131171192WAug 20 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.611111113O. Strutinskiy2.208790LAug 18 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61811911O. Strutinskiy2.2011411113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.