TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451230
Played Aug 18Finished
Yehor Riadynskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811114911111––
Oleksandr Strutinskiy
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:42 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeYehor Riadynskyi to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Oleksandr Strutinskiy below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 66 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Yehor Riadynskyi at 59.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 55–40 Oleksandr Strutinskiy Oleksandr Strutinskiy has won 40 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Riadynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-40 in 95
Riadynskyi
Wrong
gap of 15 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1678 vs Strutinskiy 1644
Riadynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Strutinskiy 60%
Strutinskiy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 50% vs Strutinskiy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi +1 · Strutinskiy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Riadynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strutinskiy form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.61 / Strutinskiy 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Riadynskyi)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451230
Riadynskyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 203 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it92% 98 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 184
Strutinskiy2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 59 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi6wins
AwayStrutinskiy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRiadynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi80%4 of 5
AwayStrutinskiy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi5Strutinskiy5n = 10split evenly
S2Riadynskyi6Strutinskiy4n = 10Riadynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Riadynskyi6Strutinskiy4n = 10Riadynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Riadynskyi3Strutinskiy3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiStrutinskiyR − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.633.0+2.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiStrutinskiyBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 730 vs 392 / 76557%51.2%416 / 730 vs 392 / 765Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.61/Strutinskiy 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strutinskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 17:30Y. Riadynskyi—1171091O. Strutinskiy—61112113
WAug 6 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi—811115113O. Strutinskiy—11771172
WAug 4 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi—11811113O. Strutinskiy—811241
LAug 3 · 12:30Y. Riadynskyi—94100O. Strutinskiy—1111123
WJul 23 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi—81112113O. Strutinskiy—1131081
WJul 21 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi—1111133O. Strutinskiy—89110
WJul 17 · 12:30Y. Riadynskyi—11119113O. Strutinskiy—861161
LJul 14 · 11:20Y. Riadynskyi—5540O. Strutinskiy—1111113
WJul 13 · 19:00Y. Riadynskyi—1111113O. Strutinskiy—6620
LJul 11 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi—81111672O. Strutinskiy—118911113
Y. Riadynskyi10
LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123LAug 28 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi1.5761090E. Hrytsenko2.251112113LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6751140V. Maksuta2.101113113WAug 20 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.83116611113M. Deineha1.8351111792WAug 20 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi1.80158119113M. Mrykh1.91131171192WAug 20 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.611111113O. Strutinskiy2.208790LAug 20 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi1.5012670A. Derevianko2.501411113
O. Strutinskiy10
WSep 4 · 12:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.501415891O. Strutinskiy1.50161311113LSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580LSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 07:50E. Hrytsenko2.6391191152O. Strutinskiy1.44118115113LSep 4 · 05:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8391111113O. Strutinskiy1.83113481WSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 17:30Y. Opryshchenko1.80104111192O. Strutinskiy1.91121198113LSep 3 · 16:00E. Hrytsenko2.75411147113O. Strutinskiy1.40116121172WAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 20 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.611111113O. Strutinskiy2.208790
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