TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462121
Played Aug 20Finished
Yehor Riadynskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1513811117911119
Maksym Mrykh
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYehor Riadynskyi above · Maksym Mrykh below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Yehor Riadynskyi 3–4 Maksym Mrykh Yehor Riadynskyi has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Riadynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Riadynskyi 1684 vs Mrykh 1611
Riadynskyi
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Riadynskyi 40% vs Mrykh 20%
Riadynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Riadynskyi 50% vs Mrykh 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Riadynskyi +1 · Mrykh +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Riadynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrykh form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRiadynskyi 1.80 / Mrykh 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Riadynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12462121
Riadynskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 201 of 312
Up 2–0, closes it92% 98 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 183
Mrykh1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 24 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRiadynskyi3wins
AwayMrykh4wins
4 of 7 to a deciderMrykh leads 4–3, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRiadynskyi75%3 of 4
AwayMrykh100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Riadynskyi4Mrykh3n = 7Riadynskyi took 4 of 7
S2Riadynskyi3Mrykh4n = 7Mrykh took 4 of 7
S3Riadynskyi3Mrykh4n = 7Mrykh took 4 of 7
S4Riadynskyi2Mrykh4n = 6Mrykh took 4 of 6
S5Riadynskyi2Mrykh2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricRiadynskyiMrykhR − MBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match44.144.6−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRiadynskyiMrykhBasisWin rate · lifetime419 / 735 vs 224 / 50657%44.3%419 / 735 vs 224 / 506Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RiadynskyiRiadynskyi 1.80/Mrykh 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Riadynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Riadynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 20 · 15:00Y. Riadynskyi—158119113M. Mrykh—131171192
LAug 18 · 08:20Y. Riadynskyi—911581M. Mrykh—11811113
WAug 6 · 13:00Y. Riadynskyi—1213611113M. Mrykh—1011111352
LJul 28 · 07:50Y. Riadynskyi—11129592M. Mrykh—8101111113
LJul 27 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi—811100M. Mrykh—1113123
WJul 1 · 21:41Y. Riadynskyi—111011113M. Mrykh—412871
LJul 1 · 20:50Y. Riadynskyi—811111292M. Mrykh—1113710113
Y. Riadynskyi10
LAug 28 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61131161162O. Strutinskiy2.201151113113LAug 28 · 10:20V. Savoliuk2.1011117113Y. Riadynskyi1.67881191WAug 28 · 09:20Y. Riadynskyi2.1091111113A. Zozulia1.67112691WAug 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko2.631258101Y. Riadynskyi1.44101111123LAug 28 · 06:50Y. Riadynskyi1.5761090E. Hrytsenko2.251112113LAug 20 · 18:00Y. Riadynskyi1.6751140V. Maksuta2.101113113WAug 20 · 16:30Y. Riadynskyi1.83116611113M. Deineha1.8351111792WAug 20 · 13:30Y. Riadynskyi1.611111113O. Strutinskiy2.208790LAug 20 · 12:00Y. Riadynskyi1.5012670A. Derevianko2.501411113LAug 18 · 12:20Y. Riadynskyi1.61811911O. Strutinskiy2.2011411113
M. Mrykh10
WSep 1 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.83911981M. Mrykh1.8311911113LSep 1 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.201131191A. Derevianko1.6171113113WSep 1 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.20111410113O. Strutinskiy1.616121271WSep 1 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.83511117113V. Savoliuk1.8311961132LSep 1 · 06:20M. Mrykh2.00111161092A. Nazarov1.73991112113WAug 21 · 11:50M. Deineha1.5791180M. Mrykh2.251113113WAug 21 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.3811411113O. Strutinskiy1.53711671WAug 21 · 09:50M. Mrykh2.25111239113A. Derevianko1.57810111182WAug 21 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.671111113E. Hrytsenko2.109860WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192
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