TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088825
Played Sep 7Finished
Volodymir Maksuta
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811911––––
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:38 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymir Maksuta above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 58.2%
58 points played in total.
H2H Volodymir Maksuta 2–8 Andrii Derevianko Volodymir Maksuta has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:38What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksuta 1616 vs Derevianko 1712
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksuta 20% vs Derevianko 80%
Derevianko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksuta 30% vs Derevianko 70%
Derevianko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksuta -4 · Derevianko -1
Maksuta
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Derevianko) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksuta 2.10 / Derevianko 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Derevianko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13088825
Maksuta2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 22 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Derevianko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 79 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksuta2wins
AwayDerevianko8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderDerevianko leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksuta50%2 of 4
AwayDerevianko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksuta4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S2Maksuta2Derevianko8n = 10Derevianko took 8 of 10
S3Maksuta4Derevianko6n = 10Derevianko took 6 of 10
S4Maksuta2Derevianko4n = 6Derevianko took 4 of 6
S5Maksuta2Derevianko4n = 6Derevianko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksutaDereviankoM − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.843.2−6.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksutaDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 279 vs 461 / 97157.7%47.5%161 / 279 vs 461 / 971Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMaksuta 2.10/Derevianko 1.67
Hit
What we said
60.2%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta—8890A. Derevianko—1111113
LAug 31 · 16:30V. Maksuta—114118102A. Derevianko—811811123
LAug 27 · 16:30V. Maksuta—1011111162A. Derevianko—128713113
LAug 20 · 16:00V. Maksuta—61040A. Derevianko—1112113
WAug 17 · 14:30V. Maksuta—119711113A. Derevianko—31111882
LAug 14 · 16:30V. Maksuta—3890A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 6 · 12:30V. Maksuta—111316133A. Derevianko—9111111112
LJul 2 · 16:00V. Maksuta—48150A. Derevianko—1111173
LJun 25 · 21:50V. Maksuta—87111272A. Derevianko—1111410113
LJun 18 · 16:20V. Maksuta—12511982A. Derevianko—1011811113
V. Maksuta10
WSep 7 · 16:00V. Maksuta2.631112123V. Savoliuk1.44410100LSep 7 · 12:30V. Maksuta2.00117761O. Strutinskiy1.7361111113LSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113LSep 3 · 15:00V. Maksuta1.917111151M. Deineha1.8011138103WSep 3 · 13:30V. Maksuta1.281111133Y. Opryshchenko3.5026110LSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123WAug 31 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.83101111113E. Hrytsenko1.83123671LAug 31 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.00114118102A. Derevianko1.73811811123LAug 31 · 15:00V. Maksuta1.807470O. Strutinskiy1.911111113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890LSep 7 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.67711116102M. Mrykh2.10118511123WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WAug 31 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.00114118102A. Derevianko1.73811811123
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