TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049373
Played Aug 31Finished
Volodymir Maksuta
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1184111188111012
Andrii Derevianko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:44 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAndrii Derevianko to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymir Maksuta above · Andrii Derevianko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Andrii Derevianko at 54.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Volodymir Maksuta 2–6 Andrii Derevianko Volodymir Maksuta has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:44What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derevianko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Derevianko
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksuta 1665 vs Derevianko 1639
Maksuta
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksuta 20% vs Derevianko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksuta 40% vs Derevianko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksuta -1 · Derevianko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Derevianko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevianko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksuta 2.00 / Derevianko 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Derevianko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13049373
Maksuta2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 22 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Derevianko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 78 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 55 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMaksuta2wins
AwayDerevianko6wins
5 of 8 to a deciderDerevianko leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksuta66.7%2 of 3
AwayDerevianko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksuta3Derevianko5n = 8Derevianko took 5 of 8
S2Maksuta2Derevianko6n = 8Derevianko took 6 of 8
S3Maksuta3Derevianko5n = 8Derevianko took 5 of 8
S4Maksuta2Derevianko3n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
S5Maksuta2Derevianko3n = 5Derevianko took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricMaksutaDereviankoM − DBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match37.443.6−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksutaDereviankoBasisWin rate · lifetime159 / 271 vs 459 / 97358.7%47.2%159 / 271 vs 459 / 973Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DereviankoMaksuta 2.00/Derevianko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Derevianko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 27 · 16:30V. Maksuta—1011111162A. Derevianko—128713113
LAug 20 · 16:00V. Maksuta—61040A. Derevianko—1112113
WAug 17 · 14:30V. Maksuta—119711113A. Derevianko—31111882
LAug 14 · 16:30V. Maksuta—3890A. Derevianko—1111113
WAug 6 · 12:30V. Maksuta—111316133A. Derevianko—9111111112
LJul 2 · 16:00V. Maksuta—48150A. Derevianko—1111173
LJun 25 · 21:50V. Maksuta—87111272A. Derevianko—1111410113
LJun 18 · 16:20V. Maksuta—12511982A. Derevianko—1011811113
V. Maksuta10
LSep 3 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.733980E. Hrytsenko2.001111113LSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113LSep 3 · 15:00V. Maksuta1.917111151M. Deineha1.8011138103WSep 3 · 13:30V. Maksuta1.281111133Y. Opryshchenko3.5026110LSep 3 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.00148911102O. Strutinskiy1.731211117123WAug 31 · 18:00V. Maksuta1.83101111113E. Hrytsenko1.83123671LAug 31 · 15:00V. Maksuta1.807470O. Strutinskiy1.911111113WAug 31 · 13:30V. Maksuta1.331111113Y. Opryshchenko3.255750LAug 31 · 12:00V. Maksuta2.50115991V. Savoliuk1.5091111113LAug 27 · 18:30V. Maksuta1.6713121081O. Strutinskiy2.10111412113
A. Derevianko10
WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LSep 3 · 18:30A. Derevianko1.91811591O. Strutinskiy1.8011611113WSep 3 · 16:30V. Maksuta2.008890A. Derevianko1.731111113WSep 3 · 15:30A. Derevianko1.911111113Y. Opryshchenko1.803550LSep 3 · 14:30E. Hrytsenko2.1012211113A. Derevianko1.671011991LSep 3 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.6711881362M. Deineha2.105111111113
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