TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094651
Played Sep 8Finished
Andrii Derevianko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111311114611118
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrii Derevianko above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 59.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Derevianko 10–25 Ivan Nitchenko Andrii Derevianko has won 10 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:55What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Nitchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-25 in 35
Nitchenko
Wrong
gap of 15 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevianko 1735 vs Nitchenko 1575
Derevianko
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevianko 60% vs Nitchenko 40%
Derevianko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevianko 80% vs Nitchenko 30%
Derevianko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevianko +1 · Nitchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nitchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevianko 2.25 / Nitchenko 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Nitchenko)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094651
Derevianko2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 132 of 326
Down 0–1, comes back24% 45 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 100
Nitchenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevianko2wins
AwayNitchenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDereviankon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayNitchenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevianko2Nitchenko8n = 10Nitchenko took 8 of 10
S2Derevianko5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevianko4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S4Derevianko3Nitchenko4n = 7Nitchenko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoD − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.938.1−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDereviankoNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 975 vs 186 / 38247.6%48.7%464 / 975 vs 186 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoDerevianko 2.25/Nitchenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Derevianko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko—51312123I. Nitchenko—111110101
LAug 21 · 11:20A. Derevianko—91181172I. Nitchenko—113116113
WAug 11 · 11:50A. Derevianko—1111113I. Nitchenko—6940
LAug 7 · 09:20A. Derevianko—81090I. Nitchenko—1112113
LAug 4 · 11:50A. Derevianko—8111271I. Nitchenko—11414113
LJul 31 · 10:50A. Derevianko—89110I. Nitchenko—1111133
LJul 28 · 08:20A. Derevianko—731171I. Nitchenko—11115113
LJul 21 · 11:50A. Derevianko—811611102I. Nitchenko—115117123
LJul 14 · 08:50A. Derevianko—9611121I. Nitchenko—11119143
LJul 10 · 07:05A. Derevianko—1148101I. Nitchenko—61111123
A. Derevianko10
LSep 8 · 07:20A. Derevianko2.00117111172O. Strutinskiy1.73131159113WSep 7 · 18:30A. Derevianko2.50711116113V. Savoliuk1.5011961162LSep 7 · 16:30E. Hrytsenko2.105101113143A. Derevianko1.671112611122WSep 7 · 15:30A. Derevianko2.001211113O. Strutinskiy1.7310890WSep 7 · 14:30V. Maksuta2.108890A. Derevianko1.671111113LSep 7 · 13:00A. Derevianko1.67711116102M. Mrykh2.10118511123WSep 4 · 11:50Y. Opryshchenko1.8312821A. Derevianko1.83101152WSep 4 · 10:50A. Derevianko1.8071111113E. Hrytsenko1.91116481WSep 4 · 09:50A. Derevianko2.001111113O. Strutinskiy1.734620WSep 4 · 08:20A. Derevianko1.36581111113Y. Skorobahatyi3.0011115492
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292LAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.50119711213I. Nitchenko2.50711115192
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