TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094607
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117101210121012––
Ivan Nitchenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 84 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 11–21 Ivan Nitchenko Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-21 in 32
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1763 vs Nitchenko 1569
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Nitchenko 40%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 70% vs Nitchenko 30%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +4 · Nitchenko -2
Zhyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Nitchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nitchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 2.20 / Nitchenko 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Nitchenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094607
Zhyrnov2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 55
Nitchenko1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov4wins
AwayNitchenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov75%3 of 4
AwayNitchenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov4Nitchenko6n = 10Nitchenko took 6 of 10
S2Zhyrnov5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov6Nitchenko4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Zhyrnov1Nitchenko4n = 5Nitchenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovNitchenkoZ − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.233.9−1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 763 vs 186 / 38349.9%48.6%381 / 763 vs 186 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoZhyrnov 2.20/Nitchenko 1.61
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 8 · 06:20O. Zhyrnov—9550I. Nitchenko—1111113
LApr 3 · 06:20O. Zhyrnov—311781I. Nitchenko—11611113
WMar 31 · 09:20O. Zhyrnov—1111113I. Nitchenko—6990
LMar 27 · 07:35O. Zhyrnov—118751I. Nitchenko—61111113
LMar 24 · 10:20O. Zhyrnov—951361I. Nitchenko—111111113
WMar 17 · 13:50O. Zhyrnov—1111113I. Nitchenko—7370
WMar 6 · 10:20O. Zhyrnov—1211113I. Nitchenko—10280
LFeb 21 · 18:10O. Zhyrnov—81112672I. Nitchenko—1131011103
WJan 21 · 11:40O. Zhyrnov—921112103I. Nitchenko—111171062
LDec 30 · 11:40O. Zhyrnov—9490I. Nitchenko—1111113
O. Zhyrnov10
LSep 8 · 08:50A. Derevianko1.401111113O. Zhyrnov2.754650WSep 8 · 06:50M. Mrykh1.44116591O. Zhyrnov2.6341111113WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113
I. Nitchenko10
LSep 8 · 05:50A. Derevianko2.25513116113I. Nitchenko1.57111141182LSep 4 · 12:50E. Hrytsenko1.8011119113I. Nitchenko1.91841131WSep 4 · 11:20I. Nitchenko2.101111113O. Strutinskiy1.676580WSep 4 · 09:20Y. Skorobahatyi2.507101271I. Nitchenko1.50111210113LSep 4 · 07:20Y. Opryshchenko1.6711614113I. Nitchenko2.102111261LSep 4 · 06:20A. Derevianko2.6351312123I. Nitchenko1.44111110101LAug 21 · 12:50O. Strutinskiy1.7391111123I. Nitchenko2.001166101WAug 21 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.57113116113A. Derevianko2.2591181172LAug 21 · 09:20E. Hrytsenko1.8311115113I. Nitchenko1.83581141LAug 21 · 07:20M. Deineha1.80611811113I. Nitchenko1.9111911292
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