TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114361
Played Sep 11Finished
Marcin Marchlewski
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811811––––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 6–10 Maciej Nowalinski Marcin Marchlewski has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:26What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Nowalinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Nowalinski
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1606 vs Nowalinski 1745
Nowalinski
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Nowalinski 80%
Nowalinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 50% vs Nowalinski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Nowalinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Nowalinski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 2.75 / Nowalinski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Nowalinski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114361
Marchlewski2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 194
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back12% 7 of 59
Nowalinski1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 187 of 308
Up 2–0, closes it100% 63 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it84% 136 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayNowalinski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski100%4 of 4
AwayNowalinski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski4Nowalinski6n = 10Nowalinski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Marchlewski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Marchlewski4Nowalinski4n = 8split evenly
S5Marchlewski2Nowalinski1n = 3Marchlewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiNowalinskiM − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.5+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 924 vs 824 / 171248.3%48.1%446 / 924 vs 824 / 1712Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiMarchlewski 2.75/Nowalinski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 15 · 11:25M. Marchlewski—1211891M. Nowalinski—14711113
WDec 25 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—121349113M. Nowalinski—1011111172
LOct 25 · 06:40M. Marchlewski—691491M. Nowalinski—111112113
WOct 25 · 04:10M. Marchlewski—118911113M. Nowalinski—71111782
WOct 4 · 16:00M. Marchlewski—1114113M. Nowalinski—61280
LAug 3 · 05:25M. Marchlewski—871161M. Nowalinski—11116113
LAug 3 · 03:00M. Marchlewski—911101182M. Nowalinski—117128113
WAug 2 · 17:30M. Marchlewski—131212113M. Nowalinski—11141091
WJul 12 · 20:15M. Marchlewski—81111113M. Nowalinski—116781
LJul 11 · 15:55M. Marchlewski—7990M. Nowalinski—1111113
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 11 · 19:40K. Strowski1.4081111782M. Marchlewski2.75118811113WSep 11 · 18:50P. Jendrzejewski1.6191111782M. Marchlewski2.20117511113LSep 11 · 18:05M. Marchlewski2.00311891T. Filbrandt1.7311911113LSep 11 · 16:55M. Marchlewski1.833540J. Mitas1.831111113WAug 23 · 23:20F. Mlynarski1.3069141192M. Marchlewski3.401111127113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Kolek1.8311115113M. Marchlewski1.83981171LAug 23 · 22:10M. Marchlewski4.00611771M. Rutkowski1.2211911113WAug 23 · 21:00J. Chmielowski1.7381181142M. Marchlewski2.00115116113WAug 23 · 19:40J. Zochniak1.8511115982M. Marchlewski1.82951111113LAug 23 · 18:55A. Linek2.9571111113M. Marchlewski1.34112451
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 11 · 20:30T. Filbrandt2.631411169113M. Nowalinski1.44168141192WSep 11 · 18:30K. Strowski1.8311591132M. Nowalinski1.83611119113WSep 11 · 17:40J. Mitas2.6351111852M. Nowalinski1.44119611113WSep 11 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8371161192M. Nowalinski1.83118114113WSep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.731285151M. Nowalinski1.92101111173LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 11 · 22:30M. Marchlewski2.25P. Jendrzejewski1.57—Sep 11 · 23:15M. Marchlewski1.80T. Filbrandt1.91—Sep 11 · 23:55M. Marchlewski2.10J. Mitas1.67—Sep 12 · 01:30M. Marchlewski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski—M. Kolek——Sep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski—J. Kuzmicz——Sep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski—F. Mlynarski——Sep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski—T. Filbrandt——Sep 12 · 21:00M. Marchlewski—P. Jendrzejewski——
M. Nowalinski
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.