TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112673
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12108115111517––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.92
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched — 61.0% is still 61.0%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
61.0%
61.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
12108115111517––
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 38–35 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 35 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:03What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (53%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-35 in 73
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1828 vs Nowalinski 1714
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 100% vs Nowalinski 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 80% vs Nowalinski 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +5 · Nowalinski -1
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.73 / Nowalinski 1.92
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Miastowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13112673
Miastowski1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 123 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it96% 51 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it76% 81 of 106
Nowalinski1.92
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 123 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back18% 36 of 199
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski5wins
AwayNowalinski5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayNowalinski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski7Nowalinski3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S2Miastowski2Nowalinski8n = 10Nowalinski took 8 of 10
S3Miastowski5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Miastowski6Nowalinski4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S5Miastowski3Nowalinski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiNowalinskiM − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match46.845.4+1.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1119 vs 821 / 170851.9%48.1%581 / 1119 vs 821 / 1708Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.73/Nowalinski 1.92
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 14:35M. Miastowski—1141111133M. Nowalinski—511713112
WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski—11512113M. Nowalinski—9111081
LAug 29 · 14:10M. Miastowski—12911131M. Nowalinski—14117143
LAug 29 · 05:15M. Miastowski—1287111M. Nowalinski—101111133
WAug 23 · 09:40M. Miastowski—911711113M. Nowalinski—11411182
WAug 9 · 14:35M. Miastowski—135811113M. Nowalinski—111111782
LAug 9 · 06:30M. Miastowski—1013101172M. Nowalinski—1211124113
LMay 27 · 12:45M. Miastowski—111311582M. Nowalinski—815111113
LMay 27 · 03:05M. Miastowski—14991462M. Nowalinski—12111112113
WMay 26 · 09:05M. Miastowski—111313113M. Nowalinski—7151191
M. Miastowski10
WSep 11 · 12:35K. Staszczyk2.905890M. Miastowski1.321111113WSep 11 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.50121567102M. Miastowski1.4510131111123WSep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.381313113K. Wisniewski2.65111190WSep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.3791112113M. Kolek2.701191081WSep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.381191111123M. Olejnik1.53911813102LSep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.0010111181M. Jadczyk1.7312135113LSep 11 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.8351131182K. Wloczko1.83116117113WSep 11 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.441112113G. Poliniewicz2.6361050WSep 11 · 03:00M. Miastowski1.61811117153J. Kuzmicz2.20119911132WSep 10 · 13:50D. Kosmal3.0091240M. Miastowski1.311114113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 11 · 13:25K. Wisniewski2.551181111113M. Nowalinski1.4213115592WSep 11 · 11:20K. Staszczyk2.6586111412M. Nowalinski1.381111712113LSep 11 · 10:30M. Kolek2.5512114113M. Nowalinski1.421091151WSep 11 · 09:00D. Kosmal2.75611761M. Nowalinski1.3611611113LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113
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