TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109275
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511116311117811
Krzysztof Wloczko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Wloczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Krzysztof Wloczko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 84 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Wloczko at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 37–27 Krzysztof Wloczko Krzysztof Wloczko has won 27 of their 64 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 23h before this match
Miastowski beat Wloczko 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:38What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wloczko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-27 in 64
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 10 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1816 vs Wloczko 1862
Wloczko
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 80% vs Wloczko 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 80% vs Wloczko 50%
Miastowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +4 · Wloczko -1
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Miastowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wloczko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.83 / Wloczko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Miastowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13109275
Miastowski1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Wloczko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski6wins
AwayWloczko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski60%3 of 5
AwayWloczko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski5Wloczko5n = 10split evenly
S2Miastowski7Wloczko3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S3Miastowski4Wloczko6n = 10Wloczko took 6 of 10
S4Miastowski5Wloczko4n = 9Miastowski took 5 of 9
S5Miastowski3Wloczko2n = 5Miastowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiWloczkoM − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.639.6+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiWloczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1111 vs 952 / 182251.9%52.3%576 / 1111 vs 952 / 1822Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.83/Wloczko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wloczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:35M. Miastowski—11611113K. Wloczko—911671
LAug 23 · 07:20M. Miastowski—4111091K. Wloczko—11112113
WAug 10 · 04:10M. Miastowski—1412113K. Wloczko—121050
WJun 8 · 05:05M. Miastowski—1311117113K. Wloczko—15851162
LMay 27 · 09:30M. Miastowski—116461K. Wloczko—51111113
WMay 26 · 14:25M. Miastowski—121110123K. Wloczko—10512101
WMay 1 · 14:30M. Miastowski—811811123K. Wloczko—117111102
LApr 15 · 11:30M. Miastowski—1171111122K. Wloczko—911713143
LMar 23 · 15:00M. Miastowski—711411102K. Wloczko—115113123
WMar 23 · 09:45M. Miastowski—411911113K. Wloczko—11711792
M. Miastowski10
WSep 11 · 04:10M. Miastowski1.441112113G. Poliniewicz2.6361050WSep 11 · 03:00M. Miastowski1.61811117153J. Kuzmicz2.20119911132WSep 10 · 13:50D. Kosmal3.0091240M. Miastowski1.311114113WSep 10 · 13:00F. Krcil2.323760M. Miastowski1.491111113LSep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski1.7511714962J. Kuzmicz1.909111211113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Miastowski1.391111133K. Wisniewski2.6594110WSep 10 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz2.50871151M. Miastowski1.4611114113WSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.5011811143G. Felkel1.502119121WSep 10 · 06:35K. Wloczko2.00911671M. Miastowski1.7311611113LSep 10 · 05:50A. Grela1.8311114113M. Miastowski1.83291161
K. Wloczko10
LSep 11 · 04:55K. Wloczko2.25117141M. Olejnik1.5761111113WSep 11 · 03:45K. Wloczko2.5011127113M. Jadczyk1.505101181WSep 10 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.101111113K. Kolodziej1.679780LSep 10 · 12:55K. Wloczko2.636480M. Jadczyk1.441111113LSep 10 · 11:40K. Wloczko1.915970D. Michna1.801111113WSep 10 · 10:00K. Wloczko2.38113119113A. Grela1.5371181172LSep 10 · 09:00K. Wloczko3.001149101G. Felkel1.3661111123WSep 10 · 07:45K. Wloczko1.8315114113M. Jadczyk1.831361181LSep 10 · 06:35K. Wloczko2.00911671M. Miastowski1.7311611113WSep 10 · 05:30K. Wloczko3.00511159143G. Felkel1.361171311122
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
Sep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Sep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.38M. Olejnik1.53—Sep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.21M. Kolek3.65—Sep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.38K. Wisniewski2.65—Sep 11 · 11:45M. Miastowski1.31D. Kosmal2.95—Sep 11 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.32K. Staszczyk2.90—Sep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.73M. Nowalinski1.92—
K. Wloczko
Sep 11 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.40G. Poliniewicz2.75—Sep 11 · 08:05K. Wloczko1.83J. Kuzmicz1.83—Sep 11 · 10:25K. Wloczko1.83J. Kuzmicz1.83—Sep 11 · 12:05K. Wloczko2.25M. Olejnik1.57—Sep 11 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.50M. Jadczyk1.50—Sep 11 · 14:35K. Wloczko2.25K. Kolodziej1.57—Sep 11 · 15:45K. Wloczko1.80K. Strowski1.91—
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