TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13109549
Played Sep 11Finished
Maksymilian Miastowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111191197111513
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 105 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 57.7%
105 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 7–9 Jakub Kuzmicz Maksymilian Miastowski has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Kuzmicz beat Miastowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Miastowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1795 vs Kuzmicz 1780
Miastowski
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 80% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Miastowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 60% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +2 · Kuzmicz +3
Kuzmicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Miastowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 1.61 / Kuzmicz 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Miastowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13109549
Miastowski1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 116 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it96% 46 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 98
Kuzmicz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog51% won 135 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back30% 39 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski4wins
AwayKuzmicz6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmicz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Miastowski6Kuzmicz4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S3Miastowski4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S4Miastowski5Kuzmicz3n = 8Miastowski took 5 of 8
S5Miastowski1Kuzmicz3n = 4Kuzmicz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiKuzmiczM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.439.6+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime574 / 1109 vs 668 / 115751.8%57.7%574 / 1109 vs 668 / 1157Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiMiastowski 1.61/Kuzmicz 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski—11714962J. Kuzmicz—9111211113
LAug 11 · 11:20M. Miastowski—8111111122J. Kuzmicz—115136143
WAug 10 · 13:50M. Miastowski—11115113J. Kuzmicz—581181
WAug 10 · 03:25M. Miastowski—1111113J. Kuzmicz—6570
LJun 3 · 19:25M. Miastowski—6990J. Kuzmicz—1111113
WJun 3 · 01:05M. Miastowski—11911113J. Kuzmicz—811461
LJun 2 · 22:40M. Miastowski—10911111J. Kuzmicz—12118133
LJun 2 · 20:35M. Miastowski—8117101J. Kuzmicz—11611123
WJun 1 · 19:45M. Miastowski—6111012113J. Kuzmicz—119121092
LMay 22 · 11:30M. Miastowski—1011811102J. Kuzmicz—129112123
M. Miastowski10
WSep 10 · 13:50D. Kosmal3.0091240M. Miastowski1.311114113WSep 10 · 13:00F. Krcil2.323760M. Miastowski1.491111113LSep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski1.7511714962J. Kuzmicz1.909111211113WSep 10 · 10:30M. Miastowski1.391111133K. Wisniewski2.6594110WSep 10 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz2.50871151M. Miastowski1.4611114113WSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.5011811143G. Felkel1.502119121WSep 10 · 06:35K. Wloczko2.00911671M. Miastowski1.7311611113LSep 10 · 05:50A. Grela1.8311114113M. Miastowski1.83291161LSep 10 · 04:40M. Miastowski1.8311211962D. Michna1.83711811113LSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113
J. Kuzmicz10
WSep 10 · 14:35F. Krcil2.125440J. Kuzmicz1.591111113WSep 10 · 13:25J. Kuzmicz1.491111113K. Wisniewski2.348790WSep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski1.7511714962J. Kuzmicz1.909111211113LSep 10 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz2.1814911113J. Kuzmicz1.561211891LSep 10 · 09:20D. Kosmal2.601111811113J. Kuzmicz1.4191311792WSep 9 · 13:50T. Spanik1.3712121181J. Kuzmicz2.70101413113WSep 9 · 13:00A. Daniel1.83112661J. Kuzmicz1.8661111113WSep 9 · 12:10J. Kuzmicz1.88971113113M. Benes1.82111191152LSep 9 · 10:30J. Kuzmicz1.571291081K. Wisniewski2.16101112113LSep 9 · 09:45J. Braun1.54128611113J. Kuzmicz2.25101111792
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
Sep 11 · 05:40M. Miastowski1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Sep 11 · 06:55M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Sep 11 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.38M. Olejnik1.53—Sep 11 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.21M. Kolek3.65—Sep 11 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.38K. Wisniewski2.65—Sep 11 · 11:45M. Miastowski1.31D. Kosmal2.95—Sep 11 · 12:35M. Miastowski1.32K. Staszczyk2.90—Sep 11 · 14:15M. Miastowski1.73M. Nowalinski1.92—
J. Kuzmicz
Sep 11 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—Sep 11 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz1.57G. Poliniewicz2.25—Sep 11 · 07:20J. Kuzmicz2.20M. Olejnik1.61—Sep 11 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Sep 11 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Sep 11 · 11:15J. Kuzmicz2.00K. Strowski1.73—Sep 11 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73K. Kolodziej2.00—Sep 11 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz2.80M. Olejnik1.35—Sep 11 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—
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