Maksymilian Miastowski vs Dawid Michna 2-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103698

Played Sep 10Finished

Maksymilian Miastowski

Home

1.83

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

117211118911611

Dawid Michna

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Dawid Michna to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Dawid Michna below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 2-11

Set 3 · 11-8

Set 4 · 9-11

Set 5 · 6-11

Point 87 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Dawid Michna at 54.0%

87 points played in total.

H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 23–20 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 20 of their 43 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:27

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Michna

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

23-20 in 43

Miastowski

Wrong

gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Miastowski 1751 vs Michna 1953

Michna

Correct

both rated, 202 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Miastowski 20% vs Michna 80%

Michna

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Miastowski 40% vs Michna 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Miastowski -1 · Michna +4

Michna

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michna)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMiastowski 1.83 / Michna 1.83

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Michna)+4.0pp

TT Elite Series · #13103698

Miastowski1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Michna1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeMiastowski4wins

AwayMichna6wins

7 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMiastowski66.7%4 of 6

AwayMichna100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Miastowski6Michna4n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10

S2Miastowski7Michna3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10

S3Miastowski3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10

S4Miastowski5Michna4n = 9Miastowski took 5 of 9

S5Miastowski2Michna5n = 7Michna took 5 of 7

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away550%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricMiastowskiMichnaMiastowski − MichnaBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.345.1−0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMiastowskiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime568 / 1100 vs 531 / 97751.6%54.4%568 / 1100 vs 531 / 977Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Michna

Miastowski 1.83/Michna 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Michna · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Michna won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LApr 8 · 05:20M. Miastowski—101111382D. Michna—129811113

WApr 7 · 12:25M. Miastowski—124911113D. Michna—101111882

LFeb 9 · 14:35M. Miastowski—121199102D. Michna—1081111123

WFeb 9 · 06:00M. Miastowski—11811143D. Michna—9118121

LJan 13 · 11:40M. Miastowski—911713112D. Michna—1171111133

WJan 13 · 05:35M. Miastowski—1111113D. Michna—5880

LDec 27 · 20:05M. Miastowski—1112591D. Michna—91411113

LDec 27 · 24:25M. Miastowski—911101142D. Michna—119127113

WDec 26 · 22:05M. Miastowski—121159113D. Michna—107111162

LDec 26 · 21:10M. Miastowski—51171382D. Michna—1121111113

M. Miastowski10

LSep 10 · 03:40M. Miastowski2.10881181M. Jadczyk1.6711112113 WAug 30 · 14:35M. Nowalinski1.83511713112M. Miastowski1.831141111133 LAug 30 · 13:20M. Miastowski2.3871120T. Spanik1.531113113 LAug 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.5711119113M. Miastowski2.25741191 LAug 30 · 10:50M. Gawlas3.001112113M. Miastowski1.3681090 LAug 30 · 09:20A. Daniel2.2091111113M. Miastowski1.61116561 WAug 30 · 07:45M. Miastowski2.10211911113M. Jadczyk1.6711611982 WAug 30 · 06:30M. Miastowski1.5711512113M. Nowalinski2.259111081 WAug 30 · 05:15M. Miastowski2.251114113T. Spanik1.5761270 LAug 30 · 04:10M. Gawlas3.4011111011113M. Miastowski1.3013912892

D. Michna10

WSep 10 · 03:20K. Wloczko2.10512631D. Michna1.67111011113 WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.0011911113A. Grela1.73711951 WSep 9 · 12:55D. Michna1.7311117113M. Jadczyk2.00871171 WSep 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.83118119113K. Kolodziej1.8361191152 LSep 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.10411411112A. Wiecek1.67114119133 LSep 9 · 09:00D. Michna2.25111111562G. Felkel1.57861311113 WSep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.579780D. Michna2.251111113 LSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591 LSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna1.731110431T. Spanik2.0071211113 LSep 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.6196131172K. Wloczko2.201111119113

Upcoming Matches

M. Miastowski

Sep 10 · 05:50M. Miastowski1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 10 · 06:35M. Miastowski1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski2.50G. Felkel1.50—Sep 10 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.44G. Poliniewicz2.47—Sep 10 · 10:30M. Miastowski1.39K. Wisniewski2.65—Sep 10 · 12:10M. Miastowski1.68J. Kuzmicz1.99—Sep 10 · 13:00M. Miastowski1.49F. Krcil2.32—Sep 10 · 13:50M. Miastowski1.31D. Kosmal3.00—

D. Michna

Sep 10 · 06:15D. Michna2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—Sep 10 · 07:25D. Michna2.00G. Felkel1.73—Sep 10 · 08:35D. Michna2.10A. Grela1.67—Sep 10 · 09:40D. Michna2.10M. Jadczyk1.67—Sep 10 · 10:50D. Michna1.83K. Kolodziej1.83—Sep 10 · 11:40D. Michna1.80K. Wloczko1.91—Sep 10 · 12:30D. Michna2.10A. Grela1.67—Sep 10 · 14:10D. Michna2.00G. Felkel1.73—

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