TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098575
Played Sep 9Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711811––––
Dawid Michna
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 57 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 58.1%
57 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 27–28 Dawid Michna Grzegorz Felkel has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-28 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1911 vs Michna 1920
Michna
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 40% vs Michna 0%
Felkel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 40% vs Michna 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -2 · Michna -5
Michna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Felkel) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.57 / Michna 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Felkel)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098575
Felkel1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 225 of 364
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Michna2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 114 of 220
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel2wins
AwayMichna8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkeln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMichna75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel2Michna8n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Felkel4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Felkel3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Felkel3Michna4n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
S5Felkel2Michna3n = 5Michna took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelMichnaF − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.743.3−6.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime704 / 1173 vs 529 / 97360%54.4%704 / 1173 vs 529 / 973Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.57/Michna 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 14:10G. Felkel—114891D. Michna—91111113
LAug 27 · 07:45G. Felkel—119251D. Michna—61111113
WAug 26 · 14:10G. Felkel—911114113D. Michna—11681182
LAug 26 · 07:20G. Felkel—91111772D. Michna—118811113
LAug 14 · 10:00G. Felkel—9680D. Michna—1111113
LAug 14 · 08:05G. Felkel—311121192D. Michna—119149113
LJul 28 · 10:25G. Felkel—8960D. Michna—1111113
LJul 28 · 07:20G. Felkel—101150D. Michna—1213113
WJul 12 · 09:00G. Felkel—8111211113D. Michna—11914892
LJul 12 · 08:05G. Felkel—59121192D. Michna—1111109113
G. Felkel10
LSep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.7311911682A. Grela2.00711411113LSep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36512111092K. Wloczko3.001110912113WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251
D. Michna10
LSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.6191111113D. Michna2.20118591LSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna1.731110431T. Spanik2.0071211113LSep 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.6196131172K. Wloczko2.201111119113LSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480WAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251
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