TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098523
Played Sep 9Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171012411311––
Tibor Spanik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 69 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Dawid Michna at 55.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 12–6 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:10What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Michna
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1919 vs Spanik 1907
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 40% vs Spanik 60%
Spanik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -4 · Spanik -2
Michna
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Michna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.73 / Spanik 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Michna)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13098523
Michna1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 63 of 82
Spanik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 70 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna7wins
AwaySpanik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna71.4%5 of 7
AwaySpanik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Spanik3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Michna3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Michna7Spanik3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Michna4Spanik4n = 8split evenly
S5Michna3Spanik0n = 3Michna took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaSpanikM − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.5+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime528 / 971 vs 234 / 41754.4%56.1%528 / 971 vs 234 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.73/Spanik 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:05D. Michna—1110431T. Spanik—71211113
WAug 18 · 09:40D. Michna—11511113T. Spanik—711751
WAug 18 · 07:20D. Michna—1111113T. Spanik—5860
LAug 17 · 09:20D. Michna—8111281T. Spanik—11614113
WAug 17 · 04:10D. Michna—1191110113T. Spanik—91161232
WJun 2 · 15:10D. Michna—1111113T. Spanik—9980
LJun 2 · 06:15D. Michna—11104101T. Spanik—71211123
WJun 1 · 11:35D. Michna—651111113T. Spanik—11115782
WJun 1 · 04:20D. Michna—881211123T. Spanik—1111105102
WMay 24 · 11:10D. Michna—11611143T. Spanik—3119121
D. Michna10
LSep 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.6196131172K. Wloczko2.201111119113LSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela1.6112611642D. Michna2.201011911113WSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480LSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 07:20D. Michna1.80121111113A. Dosz1.911013771LSep 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.831112115123D. Michna1.83914911102
T. Spanik10
LSep 9 · 04:55A. Grela1.80111213113T. Spanik1.916141181LSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632WSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
T. Spanik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.