TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098576
Played Sep 9Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11612141311118––
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 86 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 7–10 Tibor Spanik Artur Grela has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Spanik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1893 vs Spanik 1906
Spanik
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Spanik 80%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Spanik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Spanik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.80 / Spanik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098576
Grela1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 110 of 146
Spanik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 70 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwaySpanik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSpanik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela66.7%4 of 6
AwaySpanik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6Spanik4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela3Spanik7n = 10Spanik took 7 of 10
S3Grela5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S4Grela2Spanik5n = 7Spanik took 5 of 7
S5Grela2Spanik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaSpanikG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.639.4−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime630 / 1248 vs 233 / 41550.5%56.1%630 / 1248 vs 233 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.80/Spanik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 23 · 14:05A. Grela—1011951T. Spanik—12811113
WMay 23 · 07:15A. Grela—1111116113T. Spanik—61371132
WMay 6 · 12:25A. Grela—113311113T. Spanik—81111992
LMay 6 · 04:00A. Grela—11611562T. Spanik—711411113
LMay 5 · 08:50A. Grela—136391T. Spanik—111111113
LMay 4 · 14:05A. Grela—91112842T. Spanik—1161011113
WMay 4 · 05:50A. Grela—11811113T. Spanik—911591
LApr 26 · 12:25A. Grela—4730T. Spanik—1111113
LApr 26 · 04:00A. Grela—6670T. Spanik—1111113
WApr 25 · 12:50A. Grela—1111123T. Spanik—98100
A. Grela10
WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela1.67981111113D. Michna2.1011118952LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151
T. Spanik10
LSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel1.917141011113T. Spanik1.80111212632WSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
T. Spanik
Sep 9 · 06:05T. Spanik2.00D. Michna1.73—Sep 9 · 07:20T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 9 · 08:30T. Spanik2.20A. Wiecek1.61—Sep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.54M. Benes2.25—Sep 9 · 10:05T. Spanik1.36A. Daniel2.75—Sep 9 · 11:20T. Spanik1.24K. Wisniewski3.45—Sep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.60J. Braun2.11—Sep 9 · 13:50T. Spanik1.37J. Kuzmicz2.70—
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