TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092324
Played Sep 8Finished
Tibor Spanik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119117118––
Adrian Wiecek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTibor Spanik above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Tibor Spanik 11–12 Adrian Wiecek Tibor Spanik has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Spanik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Spanik 1905 vs Wiecek 1883
Spanik
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Spanik 80% vs Wiecek 40%
Spanik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Spanik 80% vs Wiecek 30%
Spanik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Spanik +4 · Wiecek +2
Spanik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSpanik 1.73 / Wiecek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Spanik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092324
Spanik1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 148 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it76% 106 of 140
Wiecek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 88 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSpanik4wins
AwayWiecek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSpanik75%3 of 4
AwayWiecek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Spanik4Wiecek6n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S2Spanik6Wiecek4n = 10Spanik took 6 of 10
S3Spanik5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S4Spanik3Wiecek5n = 8Wiecek took 5 of 8
S5Spanik2Wiecek3n = 5Wiecek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSpanikWiecekS − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.343.8−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSpanikWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 413 vs 778 / 141156.2%55.1%232 / 413 vs 778 / 1411Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikSpanik 1.73/Wiecek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Spanik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 14:10T. Spanik—71111562A. Wiecek—117711113
WAug 18 · 05:15T. Spanik—111177113A. Wiecek—89111192
LAug 17 · 14:35T. Spanik—1281181A. Wiecek—14118113
WAug 17 · 06:30T. Spanik—129125113A. Wiecek—1011101192
LJun 2 · 12:25T. Spanik—81070A. Wiecek—1112113
WJun 2 · 05:05T. Spanik—1111123A. Wiecek—48100
LJun 1 · 13:15T. Spanik—1198161A. Wiecek—91111183
WJun 1 · 05:50T. Spanik—21412113A. Wiecek—11121091
LMay 25 · 14:05T. Spanik—711121172A. Wiecek—116149113
LMay 25 · 05:50T. Spanik—811811102A. Wiecek—117119123
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123WAug 31 · 13:45T. Spanik1.61101111113M. Jadczyk2.20123431
A. Wiecek10
WSep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.361011177113K. Kolodziej3.00127151172WSep 8 · 12:05M. Olejnik1.8346111192A. Wiecek1.83111186113LSep 8 · 10:50K. Wloczko2.7511117113A. Wiecek1.40981181LSep 8 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.6712611133A. Wiecek2.1010118111LSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.508121161P. David1.5011146113LSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102WSep 8 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.677121191A. Wiecek2.1011146113LSep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.109580M. Olejnik1.671111113LSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113
Upcoming Matches
T. Spanik1 of 6 neutral
A. Wiecek
Sep 9 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.33K. Wloczko3.25—Sep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 9 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.83T. Spanik1.83—Sep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.83A. Grela1.83—Sep 9 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.67D. Michna2.10—Sep 9 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Sep 9 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Sep 9 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—
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