TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098566
Played Sep 9Finished
Grzegorz Felkel
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71114121012116113
Tibor Spanik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTibor Spanik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Tibor Spanik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 97 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Tibor Spanik at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 10–8 Tibor Spanik Tibor Spanik has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Spanik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Felkel
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1940 vs Spanik 1906
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 40% vs Spanik 100%
Spanik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 60% vs Spanik 80%
Spanik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -1 · Spanik +5
Spanik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Spanik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Spanik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.91 / Spanik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Spanik)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098566
Felkel1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 45 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back17% 12 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Spanik1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 148 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it92% 71 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it76% 106 of 140
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel8wins
AwaySpanik2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel100%5 of 5
AwaySpanik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel5Spanik5n = 10split evenly
S2Felkel6Spanik4n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S3Felkel6Spanik4n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S4Felkel4Spanik1n = 5Felkel took 4 of 5
S5Felkel3Spanik0n = 3Felkel took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelSpanikF − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.632.8+4.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelSpanikBasisWin rate · lifetime703 / 1169 vs 233 / 41560.1%56.1%703 / 1169 vs 233 / 415Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SpanikFelkel 1.91/Spanik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Spanik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 03:25G. Felkel—7141011113T. Spanik—111212632
WJul 19 · 14:35G. Felkel—61111113T. Spanik—115671
WJul 19 · 03:45G. Felkel—1111123T. Spanik—77100
WJul 18 · 11:40G. Felkel—1411113T. Spanik—12470
WJun 22 · 11:15G. Felkel—1214113T. Spanik—101230
WJun 22 · 03:25G. Felkel—71111113T. Spanik—115861
WMay 5 · 06:15G. Felkel—119119113T. Spanik—81141152
LMay 4 · 11:35G. Felkel—10380T. Spanik—1211113
LMay 4 · 04:20G. Felkel—9580T. Spanik—1111113
WApr 27 · 12:00G. Felkel—117311113T. Spanik—91111792
G. Felkel10
WSep 9 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.73911451G. Felkel2.0011811113LAug 27 · 14:10D. Michna2.2091111113G. Felkel1.61114891WAug 27 · 13:20K. Kolodziej2.5010560G. Felkel1.501211113LAug 27 · 11:15A. Grela1.73121011113G. Felkel2.001012581LAug 27 · 10:25S. Kolasa2.1081111133G. Felkel1.671164111WAug 27 · 09:00P. David1.50711115112G. Felkel2.50119911133LAug 27 · 07:45D. Michna2.0061111113G. Felkel1.73119251WAug 27 · 06:55A. Grela2.009780G. Felkel1.731111113WAug 27 · 06:05G. Felkel1.671111711113S. Kolasa2.1095111382WAug 27 · 04:30G. Felkel1.251111113M. Domin3.752680
T. Spanik10
WSep 8 · 14:35T. Spanik1.73101111113A. Wiecek2.00129781WSep 8 · 12:55T. Spanik1.9111118143M. Olejnik1.804611121WSep 8 · 11:40T. Spanik1.8013116123K. Wloczko1.9111811101WSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850WSep 8 · 09:00T. Spanik1.611113113K. Kolodziej2.2051180LSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.739131191T. Spanik2.0011154113LSep 8 · 06:05T. Spanik1.9181111782M. Olejnik1.80117911113WSep 8 · 04:30T. Spanik2.751111610113P. David1.4047111262WSep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00181174102T. Spanik1.731691111123
Upcoming Matches
G. Felkel
Sep 9 · 05:15G. Felkel1.36K. Wloczko3.00—Sep 9 · 06:30G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 9 · 07:45G. Felkel1.61D. Michna2.20—Sep 9 · 09:00G. Felkel1.61D. Michna2.20—Sep 9 · 10:25G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Sep 9 · 11:15G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Sep 9 · 13:20G. Felkel1.73A. Grela2.00—Sep 9 · 14:10G. Felkel1.57K. Kolodziej2.25—
T. Spanik
Sep 9 · 04:55T. Spanik1.91A. Grela1.80—Sep 9 · 06:05T. Spanik2.00D. Michna1.73—Sep 9 · 07:20T. Spanik1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Sep 9 · 08:30T. Spanik2.20A. Wiecek1.61—Sep 9 · 09:20T. Spanik1.53M. Benes2.24—Sep 9 · 10:05T. Spanik1.36A. Daniel2.75—Sep 9 · 11:20T. Spanik1.24K. Wisniewski3.45—Sep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.60J. Braun2.11—Sep 9 · 13:50T. Spanik1.37J. Kuzmicz2.70—
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